China is bracing for a tsunami of infections after it reversed its zero-COVID policy, with some health officials estimating that 800 million could be infected over the coming months.
If that happens, it would mean 10% of the world’s population could be infected in the next 90 days, according to National Public Radio.
“This surge is going to come very fast, unfortunately. That’s the worst thing,” University of Hong Kong epidemiologist Ben Cowling told NPR. “If it was slower, China would have time to prepare. But this is so fast. In Beijing, there’s already a load of cases and [in] other major cities because it’s spreading so fast.”
China recently dropped its multiyear policy of strict lockdowns and quarantines in special facilities, marking a major U-turn in policy and allowing the virus to run rampant.
Underscoring the rapid pivot, the city of Guiyang in a southern province said some infected persons with little or mild symptoms should report to work in sectors such as government offices, state-owned companies and emergency or delivery services, according to The Associated Press.
Scientists say China is ill-prepared for the fast-moving omicron variant due to a lack of immunity from prior infection.
About 90% of the adult population has received two shots of a Chinese vaccine, which may provide some protection against severe disease, although the shots aren’t considered as effective as ones deployed in the West.
The government is putting an emphasis on booster shots amid the shift away from zero-COVID. It recently announced plans to roll out a second booster for people over age 60 and the medically frail.
As it stands, the official death toll from COVID-19 in China is 5,235. The National Health Commission on Tuesday reported five new deaths for the previous day, although the actual toll may be higher.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a research institute at the University of Washington in Seattle, estimated deaths in China could reach 322,000 by April and exceed 1 million in all of 2023.
“However way we look at it, it’s very likely that the next few months are going to be quite challenging for China,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said this month. “The populations at greatest risk in the world are those that have avoided a lot of transmission and have gaps in vaccination. And that’s exactly the case for China.”
Health authorities are scrambling to put new beds in hospitals and build fever-screening clinics, according to Reuters.
It’s unclear if China can find ways to stem the toll.
Doctors told NPR the toll will depend on the resiliency of the health system and whether vulnerable people are more cautious or quarantine voluntarily.
For more information, visit The Washington Times COVID-19 resource page.
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
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