The Patriot missile system, which first gained prominence shooting down Iraqi Scud missiles during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, could soon return to battle, taking out Russian drones and cruise missiles in the skies over Ukraine.
The Pentagon is said to be on the verge of announcing plans to send the Patriot, its most sophisticated air defense system, to Ukraine to ward off an unrelenting barrage of Russian missile and drone attacks. It would be the latest escalation in the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine as it tries to hold off Russian invading forces, and it would almost certainly spark anger in the Kremlin.
The need for the Patriots was on display again Wednesday when more than a dozen Iranian-made drones were fired at Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. Air defense troops took them out of action, Ukrainian officials said.
“It is obvious that the Russian military feels confident only when attacking peaceful cities,” Ukraine’s defense ministry said in a Twitter post. “Today, the Ukrainian air defense took the terrorists down a peg by shooting down 13 out of 13 Shahed-136/131 drones.”
President Biden, who in the past has ruled out moves that might draw the U.S. and its NATO allies into direct conflict with Russia, would have to sign off on the Patriot deal. That could happen as early as Thursday, according to multiple media reports.
Officials in Moscow said they would wait for confirmation before reacting, but the Russian Embassy in Washington denounced what it called a “provocative move” that “could lead to unpredictable consequences.”
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Upgrading Ukraine’s defenses with the sophisticated Patriot system would cause “colossal damage not only to Russian-American relations but would create additional global security risks,” the embassy said in a statement.
Ukrainian officials have been urgently requesting a more robust air defense system to shoot down incoming Russian missiles. On Monday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Western leaders during a meeting of the Group of Seven industrial powers that his country needed high-tech air defense systems to counter Russian aerial attacks, which have knocked out electricity and other crucial utilities for millions of Ukrainians as winter weather settles in.
“Russia still has the advantage in artillery and missiles. This is a fact,” Mr. Zelenskyy said. “Ukraine needs constant artillery support with guns and shells. We need more rocket artillery and more long-range missiles.”
Germany is one of the countries that use the Patriot system, which includes a fire control system, a launcher and multiple support vehicles. This week, Berlin decided to install Patriot batteries in Poland to help defend against any Russian attacks. A stray Ukrainian defense missile targeting Russian salvos landed across the border in Poland last month, killing two people.
“These rockets will protect the Polish skies and Polish earth,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said Monday, according to the Deutsche Welle media company.
The White House on Wednesday would not confirm reports that the Patriot missile system would be sent to Ukrainian fighters.
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“We have been prioritizing air defense capabilities of late because that is the urgent need of the Ukrainians,” John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters at the White House.
Russia may rely more heavily on its air campaign as depleted weapons stocks make ground operations unlikely, Adm. Tony Radakin, the chief of staff for British defense forces, told a London think tank Wednesday. He said the arms shortfall reflects a war of attrition 10 months after Russian President Vladimir Putin started what he thought would be a lightning victory.
“Let me tell Putin tonight what his own generals and ministers are probably afraid to say,” the admiral said, according to an account by The Guardian newspaper. “Russia faces a critical shortage of artillery munitions. This means that their ability to conduct successful offensive ground operations is rapidly diminishing.”
Relying on drones
With its ground attack stymied, Russia has relied on drones and missiles to attack Ukraine while digging in along defensive lines in the east and south. Moscow’s new strategy has forced the U.S. and other Western countries to provide Kyiv with additional air defenses, such as the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System and the InfraRed Imaging System Tail/Thrust.
The White House and Pentagon officials have given priority to providing Kyiv with Western-style air defenses, but some analysts say that adding Ukraine to the list of countries using the Patriot missile system — at least 17 so far — could ratchet up tensions in the region.
“The Patriots will provoke a Russian reaction. It’s the U.S.’s most escalatory action to date,” said Sean McFate, an adjunct professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. “This is not like a Stinger missile from the Afghan war. They’re very sophisticated.”
Mr. McFate, a former Army officer who also serves as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, questioned whether Ukrainian troops would be able to quickly grasp the intricate steps needed to operate the Patriot system.
“A U.S. Army soldier has 30 weeks of Patriot missile training. This is going to be done in Germany under less than ideal conditions,” he said. “These things will become huge targets for Russians, [and] they’re not cheap either.”
The Kremlin said it would consider the American-made Patriot missiles legitimate military targets, which could raise the stakes for the Biden administration.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that Russia would “certainly” target any Patriot air defense battery in the war zone.
“I would refrain from comment for now, though, because these are just media reports. Nowadays, media reports are an unreliable thing,” Mr. Peskov said, according to the official Russian Tass news agency. “Let us wait for some official information.”
If the deal is approved, the Patriot systems will likely come from existing U.S. stocks, Mr. McFate said.
“They’ll be downgraded. Some of that is highly classified, U.S.-only technology. Then Raytheon and Lockheed Martin will get more contracts to replenish the stocks,” he said.
The International Atomic Energy Agency announced Wednesday that it would establish a permanent presence at all of Ukraine’s operating nuclear power plants and at Chernobyl, the site of the 1986 nuclear accident, because of continuing concerns that Russia’s invasion has put the sensitive sites at risk.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog agency already has staff at the nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia, the largest in Europe. Ukrainian workers are operating the plant under Russian military control as fighting rages nearby. Under an agreement announced Tuesday between IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, the Khmelnytskyi, Rivne and South Ukraine plants also will have permanent IAEA staffing.
The move is part of a stepped-up effort to prevent a nuclear accident during the armed conflict, U.N. officials said.
“Our mission at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has shown the vital importance of the IAEA being there to monitor the situation and give technical advice,” Mr. Grossi said after the agreement was signed in Paris. “Thanks to this presence, the IAEA is providing the world with impartial, technical, and factual information about developments on the ground.”
The agency has voiced concerns for months about the lack of clarity at the Zaporizhzhia plant. Ukrainian and Russian military officials have blamed each other for the repeated shelling near the facility.
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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