Sen. Raphael Warnock clings to a 2-point lead over Herschel Walker, poll finds

Sen. Raphael Warnock holds a slight lead in the race for a Senate seat in Georgia, according to a poll that finds the Democrat ahead among young people and early voters while Republican challenger Herschel Walker performs well among older residents and those waiting to cast their ballots on Dec. 6.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found Mr. Warnock leading, 49% to 47%, over Mr. Walker with 4% undecided.

“Warnock’s base lies with voters under 50 — a 55% majority support him for re-election — whereas Walker holds a similar 55% majority among voters over 50,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of the poll.

Mr. Warnock has a 29-point lead among those who report voting early while Mr. Walker has an 8-point lead among those who haven’t voted yet.

Neither candidate won a majority of the vote on Election Day, prompting the runoff.

Nearly six in 10 voters — 57% — expect Mr. Warnock to win reelection, expanding the Democratic Senate majority from 50 seats to 51. One in five Republican voters expect their nominee to lose, the survey found.

“Despite the ballot test being well within the poll’s margin of error, a Walker win would surprise the majority of voters,” Mr. Kimball said.

Former President Barack Obama is campaigning with Mr. Warnock this week and former first lady Michelle Obama recorded robocalls for the senator.

Mr. Walker, meanwhile, is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, but his runoff campaign efforts have centered on Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican who recently won reelection.

President Biden, meanwhile, holds a 42% approval rating from Georgia while 52% disapprove of the job he is doing.

The Emerson survey found 44% of runoff voters would opt for Mr. Biden and 43% for Mr. Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, while Mr. Biden would lose, 47%-43%, in a matchup with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican viewed as a potential alternative to Mr. Trump.

The survey was taken among 888 very likely voters from Nov. 28 to Nov. 30 and had a margin of error of 3.2 points.