OPINION:
Americans love trailblazers – so long as the intrepid pioneers don’t lead them to a dead end. California has chosen a regulatory path toward a fully electric vehicle fleet. As the most populous state, pressure is building on the rest of the nation to follow in its footsteps. Given the ongoing challenge of keeping the lights on, other states would be smart to wait and watch before gambling on a switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy for their transportation.
The California Air Resources Board approved unanimously last week its Advanced Clean Cars II rule, which phases out gasoline-powered vehicles and bans the sale of new models by 2035. The regulation mandates that zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs), accounting for just 12% of new sales in 2021, must comprise 35% of sales by 2026 and push their gas competitors out of the showroom altogether by the mid-2030s. Fourteen additional states, including New York, Colorado and Virginia, have adopted similar rules.
Board Chairman Liane Randolph chirped over the milestone: “This is a historic day, and I’m really pleased to be here with all of you to take this step.” Unless the Golden State’s electric infrastructure can supply the juice required to power their more than 30 million vehicles in the coming years, the milestone could prove to be a stumbling block.
That’s because President Joe Biden is pushing a tandem goal nationwide, aiming for half the 17 million new U.S. vehicles currently sold to be electric-powered by 2030. That will take more juice – as much as 23% more by 2050, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Ominously, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2022 assumes only a 7% electric U.S. fleet by 2050, and it forecasts a national average electricity growth rate of less than 1% a year until then. With EVs siphoning off most of the expected boost in energy output, and the nation’s population projected by the U.S. Census Bureau to grow by as much as 39% by mid-century, the odds of a coming energy shortfall loom large.
Bewilderingly, just as California goes all-electric, it is undertaking a $445 million joint project with Oregon to tear down four hydroelectric dams generating 169 megawatts of power along the shared Klamath River in order to restore the natural environment for fish.
Memories of blackouts affecting millions of citizens during the scorching summer of 2020 have unnerved California legislators. Unsurprisingly, they are hedging their “green” bets by budgeting hundreds of millions of dollars to purchase electricity from hated fossil fuel plants ahead of their scheduled shutdown next year.
Eyeing the power prognosis, Virginia’s Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has vowed to reverse Democrat-backed legislation he inherited that is designed to mirror California’s EV policies. “I am already at work to prevent this ridiculous edict from being forced on Virginians. California’s out-of-touch laws have no place in our Commonwealth,” he wrote in a recent statement.
Other states would be wise to wait and watch whether the electric grid can power the current “clean car” craze or Californians end up walking.
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