President Biden’s string of legislative victories has cooled anxious chatter within the Democratic Party about his intention to seek reelection, but political strategists remain divided on how long the reprieve will last.
Some analysts say the wins rallied Democrats who were on the fence about Mr. Biden’s reelection bid.
“The talk about Biden not running in 2024 has definitely cooled down,” said Democratic Party strategist Brad Bannon. “I think the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act has a lot to do with that.”
Heading into the August congressional recess in Washington, Mr. Biden signed into law several priorities, including Democrats’ long-stalled $740 billion climate-and-tax bill. He secured $280 billion in science and technology spending that included a $52 billion payout to semiconductor manufacturers, sweeping health care benefits for veterans exposed to hazardous toxins in the line of duty, and the nation’s first gun control bill in decades.
The president returned to Washington on Wednesday from vacation in Delaware and announced that he would cancel student loan debt for many borrowers, a move pushed by the far left wing of his party. On Thursday, Mr. Biden will rally Democrats at two party events in suburban Maryland.
Still, Mr. Biden can’t change one of voters’ top concerns: his age. At 79, he is the oldest president in office. Republicans have homed in on the president’s gaffes and call into question his mental capacity.
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“Democrats have a real challenge coming forward in ’24,” said Pope “Mac” McCorkle III, a professor at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy. “For your standard-bearer to have questions — somewhat separate from job performance — just simply on the age issue, that’s going to be a challenge for the Democrats.
“Given the age factor and given people’s ambitions, I think you’re going to continue to see Democrats try to find ways to signal an alternative,” he said. “There is a little bit of courtesy and civility temporarily, but I think you will continue to see potential 2024 alternatives try to find a respectful way to get their names out there just in case.”
Democrats are also pointing to the special election Tuesday in New York’s “bellwether” 19th Congressional District, where Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marcus Molinaro. They say the Democrat’s victory is a good sign for the party heading into the November midterms.
Growing reluctance among Democrats to back Mr. Biden’s reelection added to the stress of his sinking poll numbers and stops and starts on Capitol Hill.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a liberal Democrat from New York, outright refused to endorse Mr. Biden in a television appearance in June. Democratic Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler cast doubt on Mr. Biden’s bid for reelection while on the debate stage in New York. Ms. Maloney later walked back her remarks, only to double down on her assertion that “he’s not running again” in an “off-the-record” remark to The New York Times editorial board.
The New York Times published an opinion piece this month titled “Hey Joe, Don’t Give It a Go.”
Mr. Bannon said the passage of the president’s marquee spending bill was most effective in silencing criticism among liberals in the party, who have been the most vocal in downplaying Mr. Biden’s bid for reelection.
“It addressed their concern that we weren’t doing anything to fight the dangers that are coming from climate change,” he said. “And I think Biden turning over [Sen. Joe] Manchin and getting him to vote for the package basically reinforces Biden’s argument that he’s a guy who can get things done.”
Mr. Manchin, West Virginia Democrat, cast the pivotal vote that enabled the Senate to pass Mr. Biden’s initiative.
Polling suggests that Mr. Biden’s wins are resonating with voters, at least in the short term.
A Morning Consult Poll published last week showed Mr. Biden’s standing among voters improving. According to the survey, conducted Aug. 12-14, Mr. Biden reached 42% approval among voters. Although still low, the rating is a notable improvement after slipping to 39% in June.
Mr. Biden is gaining confidence among Democrats before the challenging final stretch to the midterm elections. The president will kick off his party’s campaign in earnest by headlining a Democratic National Committee event Thursday in the Maryland suburbs of Washington.
Although Mr. Bannon expects the series of wins to serve as a long-term boost for the president, other analysts are unconvinced that the resurgence will last. They expect questions about Mr. Biden’s reelection intentions to reemerge.
“I’m not sure that having a couple of legislative victories now will make a difference after the midterms,” said Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. “After the midterms, and we see what happens there, that’s probably where we’re going to start revisiting that question.”
The post-midterm backlash against Mr. Biden will be significantly more pronounced if Democrats lose their majorities in Congress, Mr. McCorkle said.
Mr. Hagle said voters are especially unconvinced by the Inflation Reduction Act. Although it united the party in the short term, he said, its positive political effects could be short-lived.
“There’s a pretty good deal of skepticism about whether it’s actually going to do much, if anything, to reduce inflation,” he said, and it’s likely to lose its pull among voters if they don’t see eventual economic benefits from the bill.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Will O’Grady is more blunt.
“If Joe Biden thinks he can win by making life worse for Americans, be our guest,” he said. “There is no greater burden for Democrats than Biden and his agenda. The Inflation Reduction Act was what everyone knew it was: makeup on a pig of more inflation, 87,000 new IRS agents and new taxes.”
Voter sentiment will make or break Democrats’ decisions to rally behind Mr. Biden, said Mr. McCorkle. In that regard, Mr. Biden still faces an uphill battle.
Despite a slight uptick in popularity in recent weeks, Mr. Biden faces a growing number of polls that show voters are less than enthused about the prospect of a reelection campaign.
A Quinnipiac University poll in July found that just 24% of Americans overall and 40% of Democrats said Mr. Biden should seek reelection.
A University of Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll published last week showed that 61% of California voters oppose a second-term campaign. Democratic voters are evenly split, with 46% in favor and 46% opposed.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, and Sen. Bernard Sanders, a Vermont independent, are among the top picks of California Democrats for the 2024 ticket. Each receives 13% support. Vice President Kamala Harris places third among Democrats in her home state, with 10% support.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on this article, but Mr. Biden has maintained that he intends to run in 2024.
Mr. McCorkle cautioned against making any firm predictions about Mr. Biden’s future this far out.
“If Trump is running, for instance, solidarity [within the Democratic Party] may work itself out,” he said. “But it’s still going to be a challenge.”
• Joseph Clark can be reached at jclark@washingtontimes.com.
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