Democrats beating back ‘red wave’: ‘Senate races are just different’

So much for a Republican wave, at least in the U.S. Senate.

Democratic candidates running in the most critical Senate races of the midterm elections appear to have captured the momentum from Republicans, climbing ahead in polling and sending a warning to Republican leaders that the so-called red wave isn’t reaching the doors of the upper chamber of Congress.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz is struggling to gain traction against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat who has managed to define the celebrity doctor as a rich carpetbagger who doesn’t even know how many houses he owns.

In Wisconsin, incumbent Republican Ron Johnson is falling further behind his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. A new Marquette University Law School poll shows Mr. Barnes with a 7-point lead. 

Georgia polls show Republican challenger Herschel Walker unable to surpass Sen. Raphael G. Warnock amid criticism that the former football star lacks political polish and command of the issues compared with the Democratic incumbent, who has maintained a small but consistent lead for weeks.

Polling in Arizona, some of it conducted by partisan political action committees, shows Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly leading Trump-endorsed Republican opponent Blake Masters by up to 16 percentage points. More reliable polling in Nevada shows Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto leading Republican challenger Adam Laxalt by 3 points.

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SEE ALSO: Senate GOP running on crime, inflation to put Dems on defense in blue states

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The summer polling results have prompted top race analysts to revise their predictions for November, and the news is bleak for the Republican Party. 

Once favored to win back the majority in the Senate amid a wave of dissatisfaction with President Biden and Democratic governance, it’s now looking more likely that Republicans could lose seats and solidify Democrats’ bare majority.

The Cook Political Report, which provides a nonpartisan analysis of House and Senate races, downgraded the chances of Republicans flipping the Senate from “at least 60%” to a toss-up, with the possibility that Democrats will add to their majority. 

Senate Republican races are struggling in contrast with House Republicans, who are poised to retake the majority by perhaps as many as two dozen seats.

Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor, explaining the Senate Republican downgrade in an update Thursday, said “weak, divisive candidates in many key races” may be to blame and Republican insiders now fear that “despite a favorable political climate and history that shows they should be able to net at least one seat to break up the 50-50 logjam — their efforts to win back Senate control will fall short even as Republicans easily flip the House.”

Republicans had pinned their hopes on Mr. Oz in Pennsylvania to hold on to the seat after Sen. Patrick J. Toomey’s retirement. Despite an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, Mr. Oz is struggling to win over voters in Pennsylvania, where the vast majority of residents were born and raised in the state and may be put off by his outsider candidacy and celebrity status.

The former heart surgeon and talk show host has been ridiculed on social media after posting a video in a supermarket in which he complained about the high costs of vegetables needed for a crudite. 

The Fetterman campaign mocked Mr. Oz’s video and used it to raise $500,000 in 24 hours. 

Also last week, the two candidates engaged in a Twitter fight about Mr. Oz’s many houses. 

Mr. Fetterman tweeted the price tags and photos of each of the 10 homes owned by Mr. Oz after Mr. Oz said he owned only two houses. Mr. Oz then mocked Mr. Fetterman for relying on his parents for financial help until he was nearly 50, but it was Mr. Fetterman who prevailed in the Twitter spat by portraying Mr. Oz as uber-rich and out of touch with middle-class voters.  

“I think the Oz campaign in Pennsylvania has made a big strategic blunder in that they’ve allowed themselves to be defined by Fetterman,” said Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.

In Florida, Republicans were jolted by a University of North Florida poll released Tuesday that showed Democratic Rep. Val Demings leading Sen. Marco Rubio by 4 percentage points in her bid to block the Republican from a third term. A February poll showed Mr. Rubio up by 7 points.

Ms. Demings has been running on a pro-law-enforcement, tough-on-crime platform. TV and online ads tout her experience as Orlando police chief. 

Mason-Dixon polling director Brad Coker said the UNF online poll could be less reliable than polls taken by live or automated callers and is likely skewed toward Democrats. He said he doesn’t think Republicans have to worry about losing a Senate seat in Florida despite the grim forecasts for the party in other key states.

“Given the GOP’s new 200,000 voter registration advantage in the state, Biden’s low approval rating, continued inflation and economic worries and a huge majority saying the country is on the ‘wrong track,’ I don’t see any Democratic breakthroughs in Florida come November,” Mr. Coker said.

Democrats won the Senate majority last year after a bruising special election in Georgia that unexpectedly elected two Democrats. 

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, was hopeful earlier this year that his party would win back enough seats in the midterm elections to quickly regain the gavel.

Republicans need a net gain of one seat in November to take back the majority.

On Tuesday, however, Mr. McConnell sounded far less optimistic in remarks to the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, NBC News reported.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” Mr. McConnell said. “Senate races are just different. They’re statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”