The shrinking U.S. economy is adding to the plethora of political woes facing Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Political analysts say that plunging economic activity, coupled with 40-year high inflation, could exacerbate the backlash against President Biden and his party.
“People are always going to look for someone to blame for these kinds of economic issues,” said J. Miles Coleman, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “That’s likely to be Democrats, who are in power right now.”
Democrats already were expected to face a tough political environment heading into November’s elections.
History shows that the White House’s incumbent party generally loses seats during the first midterm of a new presidency. But the economic situation is likely to amplify those losses.
Soaring inflation has eaten away at the paychecks of American workers as prices continue to rise on everything from gasoline to groceries. Many voters cite rising costs as a top priority this election cycle.
“The economy is usually one of the most important issues that voters rank,” Mr. Coleman said. “It could and traditionally does have a very big impact … it’s something that’s worked for and against both sides over the past several elections.”
To the detriment of Democrats, the economic picture appears to be getting murkier. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday that gross domestic product shrank by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022.
GDP, which measures the final value of goods and services produced, is seen by financial experts as a broad indicator of economic health. Most economists, for instance, define a recession as two consecutive quarters in which GDP has declined.
Most economists have warned that a recession is looming, especially as the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates to curtail inflation. Few experts have suggested a recession could arrive before this fall, however.
Republicans say the shrinking economy and skyrocketing inflation result from Mr. Biden’s policies. In particular, they say the administration’s COVID-19 stimulus package and zealous environmental regulations are at fault.
“Accelerating inflation, a worker crisis, and the growing risk of a significant recession are the signature economic failures of the Biden Administration — and will likely get worse,” said Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee. “This is what happens when a president treasures his unpopular socialist agenda over the needs of American workers, families and Main Street businesses.”
The White House has been quick to push back on such assertions, arguing that it inherited inflation and the shrinking GDP numbers are not indicative of the overall economy.
“While last quarter’s growth estimate was affected by technical factors, the United States confronts the challenges of COVID-19 around the world, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and global inflation from a position of strength,” said Mr. Biden.
Voters apparently are not buying the arguments, though. Recent polling has shown Mr. Biden’s job approval rating at record lows, with Americans specifically disappointed in his handling of the economy.
A CBS/YouGov poll released earlier this month found that 42% of U.S. adults approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing, compared to 58% who disapprove. Among those polled, 69% said Mr. Biden was handling inflation poorly, and 63% said the same for his management of the economy.
Republicans are increasingly bullish that such data points to voters being ready to hold Democrats accountable at the ballot box.
“Democrats’ reckless spending is bringing us back to the Carter years of a shrinking economy and soaring inflation,” said Mike Berg, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, referring to the administration of President Jimmy Carter.
• Haris Alic can be reached at halic@washingtontimes.com.
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