Confident Republicans look to flip House, Senate seats in heart of Biden Country

House and Senate Republicans are increasingly confident that a predicted red wave in November will sweep into blue districts that supported President Biden in 2020.

Bolstering that optimism, two prominent election forecasters on Wednesday shifted 16 congressional races across the nation toward Republicans’ favor. 

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted 11 House races toward Republicans. Six of the incumbent House Democrats whose prospects were downgraded by the Cook Political Report and the Crystal Ball were elected in 2018 or 2020.

Growing optimism has propelled House Republicans’ campaign effort into New England, whose voters rarely elect Republicans to Congress.

“We’re going to get a seat in New England, I’m telling you right now,” Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota said during a recent briefing with reporters. He is chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House Republicans’ campaign arm.

Senate Republicans also are setting an ambitious campaign agenda.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the political action committee tied to Minority Leader and Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell, is spending $141 million on fall campaign advertising in states that Republicans hope to flip in November.

The list includes Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, where Democratic incumbents are battling voter dissatisfaction with Mr. Biden and the Democratic agenda. The Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend a staggering $37.1 million in Georgia alone in a bid to win back a seat flipped by Democrat Raphael Warnock in a January 2021 runoff, officials announced Monday.

House Republicans are targeting an ambitious 60 seats in districts carried by Mr. Biden in 2020, including six seats held by Democrats in New England: two in New Hampshire, two in Connecticut and one each in Maine and Rhode Island.

The House list includes 32 districts that Mr. Biden won by at least 10 points.

Two of the targeted seats are in Connecticut, where Reps. Joe Courtney and Jahana Hayes are running for reelection. One is in Rhode Island, where Republicans hope to win a seat left open by Rep. Jim Langevin, who is retiring.

Connecticut has not sent a Republican to the House since Rep. Nancy Johnson was reelected to a second and final term in 2005.

Rhode Island has not elected a Republican to the House in three decades.

Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan race analysis website Inside Elections, told The Washington Times that the 2021 elections that put Republican Glenn Youngkin in the Virginia governor’s mansion and nearly defeated New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy should have sent a signal to Democrats that Republicans would add many Biden-won districts to their 2022 target list.

“Republicans should be trying to get as many credible challengers in as many districts as possible to take advantage of opportunities as they surface,” Mr. Gonzales said. “It will be at least a few months before Republicans will have to narrow the list a bit and decide where they are going to spend money. For now, they might as well try to shoot the moon.”

Some seats on the Republican target list are wildly ambitious.

Mr. Gonzales lists only two Democratic-held New England seats, Mr. Hayes in Connecticut and Rep. Jared Golden in Maine, as competitive. Mr. Hayes’ seat is listed as “likely” to remain in Democratic control.

The district in Rhode Island left open by Mr. Langevin’s retirement voted for Mr. Biden over President Trump by nearly 14 percentage points. New Hampshire House districts represented by Democrats Chris Pappas and Ann Kuster went for Mr. Biden by 6 points and nearly 9 points, respectively.

Republicans’ hopes for an extended red wave are fueled by polling that indicates voters are fed up with Mr. Biden and the Democratic agenda in Congress, which has centered on tax-and-spend policies and climate change initiatives that many blame for high inflation rates and rising energy prices.

The extended coronavirus lockdowns and mandates, as well as the influx of tens of thousands of illegal immigrants along the southern border for months on end, have pushed Mr. Biden’s approval ratings in some surveys down into the upper 30s.

The Republican Party is also riding a wave of dissatisfaction with the vocal and influential liberal wing of the Democratic Party, which has promoted defunding the police and implementing “woke” school curricula such as critical race theory and LGBTQ issues.

“Frankly, the Democrats are seeing the same thing we are,” Mr. Emmer said. “Voters want no part of their radical left-wing agenda that has created higher prices, soaring crime and a crisis at our southern border.”

Democratic campaign officials scoffed at the Republicans’ confidence. They noted that Democratic House candidates often outperform the top of the ticket, although Mr. Biden’s name won’t be on the ballot in November.

Chris Taylor, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Democrats have an $80 million cash-on-hand advantage over Republican challengers in some of the most vulnerable districts.

Mr. Taylor said the party will use the money to promote economic growth during the Biden administration and expose the Republican agenda, in particular a proposal by Sen. Rick Scott of Florida. Mr. Scott, chairman of the Senate Republican campaign arm, has offered a plan that would require even those at the lowest income levels to pay taxes and would sunset all federal laws every five years. Even the Republican leadership opposes the plan.

“Democrats in Congress have the war chest needed to expose their dangerous agenda for America and remind voters it was Democrats who rebooted the economy and created 7.9 million jobs,” Mr. Taylor said.

Democrats point to infighting in primaries where Trump-endorsed candidates are facing off against more traditional Republicans.

In Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden is poised to win the Republican primary for a House seat long held by Rep. Ron Kind, a Democrat who is retiring. 

Mr. Van Orden, endorsed by Mr. Trump, was outside the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot. Democrats have filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission accusing Mr. Van Orden of improperly using campaign funds to pay for his trip to the Capitol.

“You’re going to run that candidate in the suburbs of Wisconsin?” a top Democratic operative said.

Mr. Van Orden acknowledged that he was at the Capitol but said he left when the crowd began pushing back police and stormed the building.

The political outlook for Democrats has brightened in Texas, where Republicans have been eyeing the 28th Congressional District, long held by a popular moderate Democrat, Rep. Henry Cuellar.

The FBI raided Mr. Cuellar’s residence in January as part of an investigation tied to Azerbaijan. A few weeks later, Mr. Cuellar was unable to clear 50% of the vote in the state’s Democratic primary, forcing him into a runoff with Jessica Cisneros.

Ms. Cisneros, who embraces far-left ideas such as the Green New Deal, would be a much easier candidate for Republicans to challenge in November in the moderate district. She campaigned heavily on the FBI raid and accused Mr. Cuellar of failing to serve the district’s interests.

Mr. Cuellar’s attorney announced last week that the FBI had cleared the lawmaker and he was not the subject of the agency’s investigation.

Mr. Cuellar faces Ms. Cinsneros in a May 24 runoff.

“He’s got the loyalty there with him and his relationship with the district,” a Democratic source told The Washington Times. “I think he’s going to be fine.”

• Kerry Picket contributed to this report.