OPINION:
Afghanistan is about to invade our national consciousness once again. However, instead of being a real-time witness to a catastrophic U.S. foreign policy failure, this time it will be caused by the images of millions of emaciated, starving Afghan children. As summer approaches, malnutrition, especially in children, is reaching dangerous levels in Afghanistan. Acute hunger rose from 14 million in July 2021 to nearly 23 million in March 2022, affecting all 34 provinces. According to the World Bank, nearly 70% of Afghan households cannot meet basic food needs and have adopted “negative coping strategies,” which translates into finding increasingly more difficult ways to eat less.
Few have a job with a dependable salary in this inscrutable, harsh land. There is food but little money to buy it. The economy is still in shock. The banking system is paralyzed. Sanctions aimed at hurting the Taliban are an inconvenience to them but crush everyday Afghans. Sharia law rules as the legal and judicial systems collapse. There is no way to make a living for large numbers of ex-Afghan soldiers and ex-Taliban fighters. The country remains awash in weapons. Millions of Afghans, who either did not have the money, the connections, or the desire to flee, yearn for a return to something resembling a normal life, but they see no path.
The United States has no presence in Afghanistan. Assistance is channeled through international organizations. Officials from Qatar arrive speaking as if they represent U.S. interests, but they are Arab, not Afghan. Even worse, U.S. contact with Afghans seems to focus on familiar but failed voices of the past. There is resistance, but it is not a force that could challenge the Taliban.
Kabul fell to the Taliban nine months ago. Kabul and all the major cities are under the strict security regimen of the obdurate Haqqani network. While the Taliban announced a “general amnesty,” acts of revenge continue. The Taliban have promised to investigate if complaints are received, but few are reported. House to house searches continue, but mainly in the northern provinces.
An astonishing 95% of the population does not get enough to eat. The country’s health care and education system have been teetering on collapse for months. Hard-earned women’s rights have turned to dust. Unapproved protests are banned and quickly shut down. Public education, especially for girls, is in turmoil. The Taliban cite the loss of state revenue caused by sanctions and unkept international promises as affecting their ability to fund basic government services, including public schools.
The regime uses customs and tax revenue collected from border crossings to fund the security forces and some rudimentary services, but little else. Humanitarian assistance activities must be coordinated with local Taliban authorities, and there are complaints of intervention during distribution. The Taliban try to secure emergency supplies for loyal families and limit deliveries to others. The Taliban also seem to believe they will gain recognition and a normalization of relations with the U.S. and the European Union without giving up very much.
Countless Afghans feel forsaken by the chaotic international withdrawal. They wonder aloud why there is no accountability for ex-leaders who abandoned the country with millions of dollars. Many Afghans believe these people should be held accountable by an international court, with their asylum requests denied and bank accounts frozen.
Some Afghans still consider leaving but have heard stories of difficulties encountered by countrymen in the United States and the U.K. Too many remain in subsidized housing, face visa problems, cannot work and feel suffocated in their new environment. For many Afghans, there is no clear path away from this disaster.
Opposition to the Taliban is growing. There is a “national resistance” with an office in Tajikistan and several unaffiliated groups with murky agendas talking about the need for change. A clamor is building among traditional Afghan tribes (Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbek, Hazara and others) for a national uprising as was done in 1979 to topple the Soviet-backed regime in Kabul. At this juncture, however, the resistance seems to offer little more than a protracted insurgency against a well-armed, entrenched enemy.
One of the biggest drawbacks cited by Afghans to armed resistance is the arsenal of abandoned military equipment left by the United States during its harried departure. The quantity and quality of the abandoned weaponry overwhelm anything in the caches of the resistance.
A negotiation strategy could be proffered by donor-nations requiring face-to-face meetings with the Taliban and representatives from a broad spectrum of Afghan society. The singular goal would be to establish a framework addressing the suffering of the Afghan people. Programs important to each side could be identified and compromises attained in return for substantial, not just token, reciprocity. Face-to-face discussions hold the most promise to ease the suffering in the intractable enigma of Afghanistan.
If the international community, especially the United States, fails to encourage these negotiations, millions of Afghans will suffer, and a civil war fueled by desperation and hopelessness could engulf the country and further destabilize the region. It is important to remember the United States once supported the Haqqanis, and the 1979 rebellion against the corrupt Soviet-backed regime was followed by the Mujahideen, which led to the emergence of Al Qaeda and the War on Terror. Can we allow history to repeat itself?
• Ron MacCammon is a retired U.S. Special Forces Colonel. He was a direct-hire employee of the Department of State assigned to the Political-Military Section at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, from January 2011 through September 2014.
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