OPINION:
The line between peace and war is thin, but the line between regional and global conflict is thinner still. Russia has crossed one line. It is poised to cross others with the help of China, and the Biden White House appears to have no strategy to handle it.
Those on the left and the right, who have preached for more than a year that the Ukraine conflict is not worth our time or resources, must recognize now how a lack of U.S. leadership in one conflict can precipitate a cascade of events that imperil global security. Think of it as threat inflation.
The Biden White House has said that there will be “consequences” for China helping Russia in Ukraine. Always deft at global brinksmanship and testing the Biden administration’s resolve, six Chinese Air Force Y-20 transport planes delivered HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems to Serbia. Add that country to the list of nations joining the China-dominated New Axis.
While the Biden White House is focused on spinning inflation as the “Putin price hike” and open borders, Serbia is increasingly looking like a Chinese or Russian proxy in the region. Apparently, there are no repercussions or even rhetorical response for the Chinese arming a European nation.
Communist China is moving into Europe militarily in a way we haven’t seen before. It’s doing it at a time when they should be cautious. They would be cautious if they saw real American leadership.
The war in Ukraine is entering into a new dangerous phase. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is becoming increasingly desperate to demonstrate to his own population that the massive losses are worth it. Only a victory of sorts will suffice between now and Victory Day, May 9. Desperate men do desperate things.
Ukrainian officials are increasingly concerned that Mr. Putin will commit a false flag attack on his own military inside Russia near the border with Ukraine to justify the use of a tactical nuclear or chemical weapon.
The alleged chemical attack in Mariupol this week is believed to have been a trial balloon to gage reaction from the international community. No indication of “consequences” for such an attack from the White House. The Ukrainian crippling of the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet could also spur additional disproportional reprisals.
Moldova is now well within Mr. Putin’s grasp as the non-NATO country already has Russian-backed separatists on its eastern border. Moldova is a sitting duck with virtually no offensive weapons, ground forces or leadership willing to stand against the Russian dictator. The country could fall to a small force of 10,000 to 20,000 Russian troops giving Mr. Putin a win for domestic purposes, control over more territory and a staging ground for attacks into Western Ukraine or more boldly, Romania.
Then there’s Georgia. After Mr. Putin invaded in 2008, under the cover of the U.S. financial crisis, then-President George W. Bush recommended NATO membership to protect the country from Moscow’s aggression. Europe refused, and today the South Ossetia region of Georgia is primed for a full Russian annexation and use as a staging ground for other incursions into the country.
A recent announcement about an effort to hold a referendum on Russian annexation in South Ossetia is curiously timed. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters “… we treat the expression of the opinion of the people of South Ossetia with respect.” A positive vote could give Mr. Putin all the reason he needs to roll into the country.
All this could happen while the battle for Donbas rages on in Eastern Ukraine as a war of attrition that could go on for years.
People in Finland are taking iodine pills and arming themselves against a possible Russian invasion. The Polish are preparing their citizens for the possibility of conflict. The Israelis should be asking themselves what happens if the U.S. allows Russia to get away with a chemical attack, even a modest one, or worse yet, the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
None of this is about Europe. China and Russia aren’t afraid of Europe. What we see happening is due to the abdication of global leadership by the American president, in favor of climate change profiteering and a far-left domestic agenda.
Mr. Putin may have overestimated the preparedness, professionalism and even the will of his military, but he still has the considerable human capital to expend. China is coming out of this first volley of the new Cold War unscathed and is now moving into Europe. Iran waits in the wings to play its part.
President Biden needs to get serious about active deterrence and real consequences for aggressive behavior or we could see a rapid cascade of circumstances that leads to global conflict.
• Tom Basile is the host of “America Right Now” on Newsmax Television, an author and a former Bush administration official.
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