Nevada Dems running on rough political terrain, falling behind in Senate, governor races in new poll

Nevada Democrats are in panic mode with a recent poll showing the party’s top incumbents trailing Republican challengers.

Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, is edged out by about 2 points by two potential GOP opponents, John Lee and Joe Lombardo, according to a Suffolk University poll for the Reno Gazette-Journal.

Mr. Sisolak is barely ahead of a third GOP challenger, Dean Heller, by 1.4 percentage points.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is in similarly difficult circumstances. The first-term Democratic senator trails the two front-runners in an eight-person Republican primary for Senate. Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt edges out Ms. Masto by just over 3 points, while Sam Brown has about a half percentage edge.

Ms. Masto’s race is one of the crucial contests in November that will decide which party takes control of the Senate. The chamber is currently split 50-50.

The Republicans’ thin leads are within the poll’s margin of error, but the survey nevertheless delivers bad news for the Democratic incumbents.

John Anzalone, a top adviser to Mr. Sisolak, called 2022 the “worst political environment that I’ve lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant.”

“I think what we’re missing right now is that voters are very much in, ‘What have you done for me lately?’ [mode]. … And they don’t feel Democrats can get their s—- together and get things done,” he said in an interview with Politico.

Republican Governors Association spokesperson Maddie Anderson relished Mr. Anzalone’s admission that Democrats are running on rough terrain in Nevada this year.

“Gov. Steve Sisolak’s top adviser waving the white flag before the primary even concludes is an unexpected turn of events, but his self-awareness is refreshing,” she said. “From Sisolak’s restrictive COVID policies that destroyed Nevada’s economy to his lack of care for Nevada’s failing schools, I’d say Anzalone’s analysis is spot-on.”

House Democrats in Nevada are facing troubles as well.

According to the Nevada Globe, the Public Safety Alliance of Nevada, an organization representing about 100 law enforcement organizations and 10,000 officers in the state rescinded its endorsement for Rep Susie Lee and threw its support behind her likely GOP challenger April Becker. The alliance supported Democratic lawmakers in Nevada 3-to-1 over Republicans in the 2020 election cycle.

Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the liberal American Progress, writes in his Liberal Patriot substack newsletter that Democrats saw a shift in voter demographics toward the GOP in recent election cycles.

“Despite rapid diversification, the Democratic margin in presidential elections from 2008 to 2016 declined sharply from 12.5 to 2.4 points. And in 2020, as the Democrats gained ground in the country as a whole, the Democratic margin in Nevada went from 2.4 points … to 2.4 points” he wrote.

He added, “That means that — again, despite rapid diversification of the electorate — Nevada went from three-tenths of percentage more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016 to 2 points more Republican in 2020.”

Mr. Teixeira attributes this, in part, to Democrats losing Hispanic and Black voters in the state.

The Suffolk University poll confirmed that President Biden and his low job approval ratings are a drag on the Democratic ticket in Nevada.

Nearly half of respondents — 47% — agreed with the statement, “I want my vote in November to change the direction President Biden is leading the nation.” Less than a third — about 27% — wanted their vote to show support for the direction Mr. Biden is taking the country.

Just 21% said their vote had nothing to do with Mr. Biden.

The poll of 500 likely midterm election voters was conducted April 2-6 with 162 Democrats, 154 Republicans and 175 independents using live telephone interviews. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points.

Correction: An earlier version of this story misspelled the name of Liberal Patriot substack author Ruy Teixeira.