OPINION:
The lack of preparedness for the collapse of the Afghan government, the lack of preparation for the safe evacuation of American citizens, and the lack of planning for protecting the Afghans who assisted our soldiers and diplomats is painfully obvious in retrospect. Still, maybe it should not have been such a big surprise.
Our whole defense and national security apparatus have been distracted by the need to be woke, and no part of wokeness has been more distracting than climate change.
Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, said, “We face all kinds of threats in our line of work, but few of them truly deserve to be called existential. The climate crisis does.” The Taliban apparently wasn’t. A Google search of the terms “Lloyd Austin Taliban existential threat before 2021-8-1” does not find much about the Taliban being an existential threat.
However, it does turn up the transcript of Secretary Austin’s fawningly received confirmation hearing, which shows how he would deal with the Taliban, “If confirmed, I intend to consult with interagency stakeholders to review the Taliban’s actions relative to all its commitments.”
This year, President Biden addressed troops at the American Air Force Base in Suffolk, England. He told them, “This is not a joke. Y’know what the Joint Chiefs told us the greatest threat facing America was? Global warming.”
The Pentagon clearly knew climate change was a bigger threat than the Taliban. The national security advisor was on board, as well. On December 12, 2020, Jake Sullivan tweeted, “The climate crisis is a national security crisis—and in 39 days, the United States will once again treat climate change as the urgent national security priority it is, including by rejoining the Paris Agreement.”
Got it?
The previous administration was missing the big threats. The Paris Agreement, and its negligible impact on whatever warming there may be, was now back in its place of national-security prominence.
The CIA was also MIA in Afghanistan this month. Not to worry; CIA director, William Burns, knows climate is the real problem. A year ago, Burns laid out his big-picture view of the conflicts and threats facing us: “International institutions will teeter, split apart by major-power rivalry and starved for resources, undermining prospects for a coordinated response to other looming global challenges—none more existential than climate change.”
If it were not so absurd, believing climate is a threat to national security might be understandable. The media, politicians, and activists keep cheering each other on in an echo chamber of climate misinformation. When he disclosed that climate change was an existential security threat, Secretary Austin gave the following as examples of climate change’s impact on the military:
- Hurricane Michael inflicted billions of dollars of damage at Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida.
- Severe flooding of the Missouri River in the Midwest damaged Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska, costing hundreds of millions of dollars.
- Wildfires in California have threatened military installations, forcing repeated evacuations.
- Typhoons in Guam most commonly occur from June to December, but in February 2019, Typhoon Wutip forced the DOD to pause exercises with Australian and Japanese allies.
All four points are grossly misleading.
Without a doubt, hurricanes are destructive and tragic. However, there has been no long-term increasing trend in tropical cyclones. The Summary for Policy Makers in the IPCC’s latest assessment report (AR6) says, “There is low confidence in long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of all-category tropical cyclones.” Hurricane Michael damaged Tyndall AFB, but no evidence suggests climate change made the hurricane more likely or the damage more extensive. We will continue to have destructive hurricanes whether CO2 levels increase, decrease, or stay the same. Electric Humvees will not change this.
According to AR6 (and all the previous IPCC assessment reports), there has been no overall increase in flooding worldwide. Some places have seen increases, and some have seen decreases, but, sorry, Secretary Austin, Missouri is not in either category.
Concerning fires (again, sorry, Mr. Secretary), wildfires in California today are below their estimated annual averages before European settlement.
January to May typhoons near Guam are not unheard of, and typhoons are not a new problem for the military. In 1944, in the middle of something closer to an actual existential threat, the Navy lost three destroyers, 146 planes, and nearly 800 sailors to a typhoon in the Philippine Sea.
For the next several decades (at least), climate change will likely take the form of sea levels rising by three millimeters and average world temperature rising by 0.01 degrees C per year. Those changes pale in comparison to the real and immediate security threats facing the U.S.
Ask those trying to get out of Afghanistan or those in Taiwan or Hong Kong wondering whether the Americans are still serious about leading the world.
Paying obeisance to climate bullies is dangerous and, at some point, it will become a lethal waste of time and resources for American security.
• David W. Kreutzer is a senior economist at The Institute for Energy Research.
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