Nevada poll shows Democratic incumbents leading likely GOP challengers narrowly

Nevada Democratic incumbents Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak face tough reelection odds despite the state’s trend in a blueish direction.

A recent poll conducted by the Mellman Group for The Nevada Independent shows Ms. Cortez Masto leading her likely Republican opponent, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, among likely voters 45.5% to 41.2%. Her four-point lead is within the margin of error.

The state has flipped in each of the past three presidential elections. Democrat Joseph R. Biden defeated then-President Trump by less than 3 percentage points last November, while Mr. Trump won the state in 2016 and Democratic President Barack Obama won Nevada in 2012.

Ms. Cortez Masto holds an 11-point lead in populous Clark County, surrounding Las Vegas. She and Mr. Laxalt are even in Washoe County, where Reno is located, but the Republican leads the incumbent two-to-one in the rest of the state.

The first-term Democratic incumbent is not unfamiliar with a tight race. She won her first election in 2016 against then-Republican Rep. Joe Heck by just over 3%.

The survey released on Sunday showed that Mr. Sisolak also leads within the margin of error over the two top GOP front-runners in the gubernatorial race. Former U.S. Sen. Dean Heller is behind Mr. Sisolak by just 2 points, 45.8% to 43.3%, and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is essentially tied with the Democratic governor, 44.9% to 44.4%.

When asked about the governor’s job performance and response to the COVID-19 pandemic, most respondents reacted with a negative rating or “only fair.”

The governor’s numbers come in the wake of the Cook Political Report shifting the gubernatorial election from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” on Tuesday. Cook made the same shift for Ms. Cortez Masto earlier this summer.

However, like Ms. Cortez Masto, Mr. Sisolak also eked out a win by 4% in his previous election in 2018 against Mr. Laxalt, who hopes Nevada voters will give him another chance for the U.S. Senate in 2022.

The latest polling results on the Nevada governor and U.S. Senate races show GOP candidates within the margin of error against two well-established Democrat incumbents in a Democrat-majority state.

Nevada Republicans see an opportunity to take back the governor’s mansion and flip one of two seats held by Democrats in the upper chamber.

“This isn’t surprising since Nevada continues to lead the nation in unemployment and continues to suffer under a dictatorial ’Declaration of Emergency’ by the governor, including an indoor ’obedience mask’ order even for people who have already gotten the COVID vaccine,” Nevada Republican Assemblywoman Annie Black told The Washington Times in an email statement.

“Add in the Biden administration’s failures nationally — especially his border crisis, his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, his inflationary economic policies, and his heavy-handed vaccine mandates — and you have a very favorable environment here for Republicans up and down the ballot,” she said.

The survey’s sample size closely resembled the state’s party voter registration, of which 30% of respondents registered as Republican, 35% registered as Democrat, and 35% registered as nonpartisan or with another party. The poll has a 4% margin of error.

New voter registration numbers from Nevada’s Secretary of State now show that non-major party voters make up a plurality of registered voters for the first time in history, the Independent noted, making this faction a critical demographic in the upcoming elections.