NBA counts on playoffs to reverse ratings slump

The new NBA play-in tournament resulted in a dream scenario for league and network executives: LeBron James vs. Stephen Curry. Two premier franchises. Last-second drama. Ratings gold. 

With the playoffs officially beginning Saturday, the league is riding high from Wednesday’s Lakers-Warriors showdown that pulled in 5.6 million viewers on ESPN. As for whether one blockbuster night can make up for what’s been another dismal year for NBA ratings remains to be seen. 

The league’s ratings fell sharply this season — down 17% to an average of 1.34 million viewers per game on contests carried on ABC, TNT and ESPN compared to last season’s pre-pandemic pause, according to Sports Media Watch. Sports Business Journal reported the overall average, including the seeding games when play resumed in the summer, was down 13% heading into the final week of the season.

The slump has happened as the league has been under fire from high-profile figures like Sen. Ted Cruz and others for emphasizing and promoting social justice causes — especially during last year’s NBA playoffs. 

Television ratings across all sports are down. But the NBA’s fall is noticeable: The league has not ranked in the top 10 of the most-watched sporting events since the pandemic. Toss out the NFL and college football, and the NBA still doesn’t crack the list.

“Looking ahead, the playoffs are going to give us a better indication of just where the NBA is versus this past season’s regular-season aggregate ratings,” said Patrick Crakes,  the former Fox Sports senior vice president of programming, research and content strategy who is now a media consultant.

‘Return to normalcy’ 

The league cut back on the social justice messaging this season after Commissioner Adam Silver in October talked about a “return to normalcy.” Gone are the jerseys emblazoned with phrases like “I can’t breathe,” “Equality” and “Enough” on the back. No more “BLACK LIVES MATTER” painted across the court. 

“I understand those people who are saying, “I’m on your side, but I want to watch a basketball game,” Silver told reporters during last year’s NBA Finals. “And 

While the league has turned down the volume, players are still speaking out on race, policing, politics and inequality.

James was criticized for tweeting “you’re next” and including a photo of the Ohio police officer who shot and killed an armed teenager, Ma’Khia Bryant. And a team like the Washington Wizards made headlines when they wore T-shirts that read “Equality,” “Justice” or “Accountability” for their team photo instead of their usual jerseys.

“We see it as — yeah we’re basketball players, we did a lot of things in the Bubble last year — but the fight for equality, for accountability, for justice, all of that is still in play,” Wizards guard Bradley Beal said. “For everything that’s going on in the world, we’re still at the forefront of it. 

“We’re just trying to make sure people don’t forget because it’s still an ongoing fight every day.”

The league hasn’t abandoned the effort. Last week, the NBA introduced its Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Social Justice Champion award — given to a player who best embodies the fight for equality.

And the NBA has pushed back against the narrative that demonstrations and protests have harmed ratings. In an interview with GQ Magazine, Silver said there was “absolutely no data” to support the notion.

“There’s no doubt there are some people — and whether or not they were truly our fans to begin with is unclear — who have become further engaged with the league because they believe in our players and they believe in the positions they’ve taken, even if they don’t agree with everything they say,” Silver said last November. “They respect their right to speak out on issues that are important to them.”

Changing habits 

Silver’s skepticism notwithstanding, there has been polling that indicates viewers have changed their habits in response to the overlap between sports and politics. More than a third — 34.5% — of respondents said they’re watching less sports because of the prominence given to political and social messaging, according to a YouGov/Yahoo News survey.

The March survey asked 1,606 adults: “How has the discussion of politics in sports impacted your viewing?” More than half of respondents who identified as Republicans — 53% — said they were watching less. That number was 36% for independents and 19% for Democrats. 

Of course, one survey doesn’t prove a link between activism and the dip in ratings. Media gurus routinely cite changing generational tastes, the proliferation of entertainment alternatives and the spread of the audience that remains across a growing number of competing platforms.

The NBA, after all, isn’t the only league suffering.

NFL ratings fell 7% in 2020, even as it dominated the television landscape. Last year’s Stanley Cup Final was down 61% from the previous year and MLB’s World Series drew its lowest rating ever with 9.72 million viewers.  

Crakes said the shift can partially be attributed to “length of tune” — meaning people are still watching but for less time, hurting the overall average. For sports, the pandemic also created an unorthodox setup in which many sports last year weren’t competing at their usual spot on the calendar. 

The 2020 NBA Finals, for example, took place in October — in the full swing of football season — rather than June. The ratings plummeted from 15.1 million viewers in 2019 to 7.5 million.

“It doesn’t have to be black or white, either-or, zero-sum,” Crakes said. “It can be more sophisticated than that. The brand can be impacted over time (by political messaging), but I don’t necessarily know that you can say, ‘Well the ratings are down 13% and I’ve got a poll somewhere … I’m always very suspicious of that stuff because my experience tells me, as long as there’s an objective reasoning to explain this, that’s the reason.” 

Top-shelf sporting events have started to regain ground lost in the pandemic. This month’s Kentucky Derby averaged 14.4 million viewers — up 54% from last year’s race, run in September.  The final day of The Masters in April drew 9.5 million viewers, up from 2020 (5.6 million) but still down from 2019 (15.4 million). 

The ratings seem to be climbing for the NBA, too. According to Sports Media Watch, viewership increased 14% in May from April and 12% from April to March.

“Generally, I’m looking at the playoffs — they’re going to be up versus last year,” Crakes said. “The question is what do they benchmark from 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.”