TEL AVIV — Israelis are trudging toward their fourth election in two years Tuesday, forced to consider once again their political future just as they emerge from a contentious coronavirus lockdown.
Longtime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has grimly clung to power throughout the country’s long political stalemate, but he will be facing two entirely new cross-cutting factors as he confronts strong challenges from the left and the right.
With an electoral system that encourages fragmentation and multiple parties, more than a few Israelis are betting that the vote will only perpetuate the political gridlock and that, once again, Mr. Netanyahu will be in the thick of the action.
On the plus side for the incumbent, Israel has emerged as a world leader in COVID-19 vaccinations, with 4 million of its nearly 7 million adults having been inoculated. Should the embattled Mr. Netanyahu secure a sixth term, many say, his victory will be based on his ability to obtain sufficient vaccines to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
But unlike the past three national elections, Mr. Netanyahu enters his campaign’s final days without a powerful ally in Washington. President Trump’s loss in November deprived Mr. Netanyahu of his diplomatic wingman and campaign prop, and rivals now say his close embrace of the Republican leaves Israel on the outs with the new Democratic Biden administration.
But Mr. Netanyahu has a reputation as political Houdini, able to escape the most intractable political situations and turn crises like the COVID-19 pandemic to his benefit.
“Netanyahu sealed a very early deal with Pfizer. He chose to pay more per dose and get it here quickly,” said Idan Ratinsky, a 31-year-old biotechnology entrepreneur who lives in Ramat Gan, a Tel Aviv suburb. “Nobody else has the sophisticated ways he does in dealing with complex challenges.”
Israel has held three elections since spring 2019 because of stalemates between Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud Party and the new center-right Blue and White coalition headed by rival Benny Gantz. The latest election was precipitated by deep-seated dysfunction in the coalition government of the two men, which collapsed when even a budget agreement couldn’t be reached.
With seesawing polls showing lukewarm support for the prime minister, most believe the election is too close to call and hinges on voter turnout and how much the vaccine story plays in voters’ choices.
At $47 per person for each two-dose vaccine, Israel paid significantly more for the Pfizer vaccine than either the U.S. or European governments. But Mr. Ratinsky, who got his second dose in mid-January, said he believes Mr. Netanyahu’s aggressive immunization effort saved his elderly parents from contracting COVID-19.
“We were exposed just days after getting the vaccine,” said Mr. Ratinsky. “As far as I’m concerned, we’re alive today thanks to Bibi” — the nickname used by Mr. Netanyahu’s admirers and detractors alike.
Polarizing figure
As with so many other Israeli households, Mr. Netanyahu is a polarizing figure in the Ratinsky family.
“After nearly 15 years in office, it’s enough already,” said Oded Ratinsky, a 77-year-old retired kitchen planner who said he would cast his ballot for conservative former Netanyahu chief of staff Naftali Bennett’s Yamina, a national religious party that has positioned itself to the political right of Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud.
“When someone has been in office this long, he starts to think of himself as a king,” the senior Mr. Ratinsky said. “And kings start to think more about themselves and their own families than the country.”
Further complicating the election are indictments against Mr. Netanyahu on charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery. Accusations include receiving cigars and bottles of champagne in exchange for favors for business tycoons and advancing regulatory decisions to help media companies that provided supportive coverage of the prime minister.
Mr. Netanyahu is so determined to hold on to his job, many suggest, because of the legal consequences should he be driven from power.
“Bibi is more of an opportunist at this point than a genuine right-winger. He will do anything to win,” said the elder Mr. Ratinsky, citing the prime minister’s “desperation” to remain in office to avoid possible jail time.
The prime minister’s critics are also disturbed by Mr. Netanyahu’s unlikely overtures to a new Islamist party aiming to capture votes from Israel’s Arab community, which makes up about 20% of its population.
“To do a partnership agreement with these Islamists is suicidal for the Jewish state,” said the senior Mr. Ratinsky.
Mr. Bennett is critical of Mr. Netanyahu’s decision last year to pause annexation of land for Jewish settlements in the Palestinian West Bank, at the request of the Trump administration, in return for a string of precedent-shattering normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other once-hostile Arab states.
Although opinion polls suggest some consolidation of support for Likud, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor his political rivals appear likely to have a clear path to forming a government after Tuesday’s vote. Mr. Gantz, whose alliance of convenience with Mr. Netanyahu proved disastrous for the Blue and White party, may lose his center-left base.
Asked who was best-suited to be prime minister, 37% of respondents in polls commissioned by Israeli TV networks published Tuesday backed Mr. Netanyahu. Another 21 percent supported Yair Lapid, a former finance minister who has replaced Mr. Gantz as the great hope of centrist parties; 10% backed Yamina and Mr. Bennett; and 9% went for former Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar, the head of New Hope, a party formed by Likud supporters who have become alienated from the prime minister.
Although not nearly the force they once were, the Labor Party and other liberal parties say they also would back Mr. Lapid to lead a coalition government and keep Mr. Netanyahu from power.
Fatigue with Mr. Netanyahu’s hold on power is so strong that some Israeli observers predict the centrist and right-wing parties could unite around the sole mission of keeping the prime minister from serving another term.
Hope and change
“This is an election where change has to happen, and you are talking to somebody who has voted Likud and Bibi forever,” said Lauren Bakerman, 46, who runs a service providing electric wheelchairs and other mobility devices in the central Israeli town of Hod HaSharon.
“Netanyahu has become more like a dictator than like a leader. That is why I am supporting Sa’ar, who is building a rational answer for people like me who would vote Likud if it wasn’t for Bibi and the people he has surrounded himself with,” Ms. Bakerman said.
She pointed to an incident last week in which Netanyahu supporters hurled rocks and eggs at Mr. Sa’ar during a New Hope campaign event. A video posted to the Sa’ar campaign’s Facebook page showed people carrying Likud flags, yelling at New Hope supporters and calling Mr. Netanyahu’s opponent a traitor.
“Violent attacks are part of Bibi’s campaign. Things have gotten ugly, and honestly, I’m worried that the demonization of political opponents could lead to another political assassination here,” said Ms. Bakerman, recalling the 1995 killing of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Earlier this month, Mr. Netanyahu faced a backlash and allegations of sexism concerning former Likud parliament member and current New Hope No. 2 candidate Yifat Shasha-Biton after he referred to her with a disparaging nickname, even as he suggested she was to blame for Israel’s COVID-19 deaths.
“Yes, Israelis give Netanyahu credit for bringing the vaccines,” said New Hope spokesman Jason Pearlman. “But overall, the crisis was mishandled politically, socially, economically, and on more than one occasion we went to bed not knowing if we could open the shops the next day.
“Of course, there must be restrictions in the middle of a pandemic, but we had hotels that were closed while tourists could still fly in and import the virus from abroad,” he said. “You could have 10 people exercising outside together, but if one of those people charged for training services, that would count as an illegal business meant to be closed.”
Mr. Sa’ar’s New Hope and Mr. Bennett’s Yamina claim that Mr. Netanyahu has ignored or reneged on promises to the right-leaning Israeli electorate on core issues such as settlement expansion, challenging the power of labor unions and the state of the government’s finances.
“The majority of Israeli voters support right-wing policies,” Mr. Pearlman said. “But Likud now seems to stand for whatever Bibi needs at any given moment, and the majority of Israelis no longer support Bibi or think their best interests will be served if he remains as prime minister.”
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