Michael Osterholm, a scientist on President Biden’s coronavirus team, said Sunday the U.S. cannot afford to let up on the COVID-19 fight and might need to reconfigure its vaccine strategy because the fast-moving “U.K. variant” of the virus could become dominant and swamp hospitals.
U.S. case numbers have plummeted by a third in recent weeks, but crafty mutations are popping up in many states, making experts like Dr. Osterholm fearful of a new surge.
“We’re really good in this country at pumping the brakes up after we wrap the car around the tree. You know, what we have to do now is also anticipate this and understand that we’re going to have to change quickly. As fast as we’re opening restaurants, we’re likely to be closing them in the near term,” Dr. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we are going to see something that we have not seen yet in this country,” he said.
The good news is that while the U.K. strain is speedy, it does not appear to weaken the impact of available vaccines. Strains from Brazil and South Africa might be able to reduce the vaccines’ power, although they don’t appear to be as prevalent in the U.S. at the moment.
Also, the one-dose J&J vaccine being submitted for U.S. approval was effective at staving off death or hospital stays across regions, even in South Africa.
The U.S. is under pressure to deliver more upfront doses of two-shot vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna as it can. Some doses are used as second-round shots to offer the full protection demonstrated in human trials, though some experts say it might be worth delaying the second shot to expand the range of initial protection.
Officials haven’t announced anything, but Dr. Osterholm said they might have to “call an audible.”
“We still want to get two doses in everyone but I think right now in advance of this surge, we need it to get as many one doses in as many people over 65 as we can to reduce serious illness and deaths that are going to occur over the weeks ahead,” Dr. Osterholm told NBC.
Former Food and Drug Commission chief Scott Gottlieb echoed calls to stay vigilant and said the vaccines “should be a backstop against the continuing spread of that [U.K.] variant.”
“I think we have the potential to turn the corner,” he told CBS’ Face the Nation. “We can keep this at bay, it’s not too late. But it’s a real risk in these parts of the country right now.”
Dr. Gottlieb cited parts of Southern California and South Florida as places that might see continuing trouble with the U.K. variant while the rest of the nation sees an overall improvement heading into the summer.
“The risk is to the fall, when these new variants are going to want to surge,” Dr. Gottlieb said.
Companies are working on tweaks to the COVID-19 vaccines that provide special protection against the new strains through booster shots.
“We could have them in time for the fall,” the former FDA chief said.
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
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