OPINION:
Poll numbers are tightening, President Donald Trump’s message of peace is resonating, and Joe Biden has emerged from his basement to find that his own, even his own Democratic Party faithfuls, are wondering if he has the stuff to pull off a White House win this November.
It’s tough to campaign for the highest office in the land, nay the world, when half your supporters want you to stay invisible, and the other half visibly nervously bite nails when you’re in public.
“The longer [Biden] stays in the background, the more dissatisfied suburban women will be [with Trump] and the more fired-up the African American community will be because, frankly, Trump is a piece of s—t and is doing everything he can to foment a race war,” Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins told The Independent.
It’s an interesting theory.
It’s an even more interesting campaign strategy — to stand back, stay silent, and hope and pray the other guy stumbles and falls.
But is it one that bears truth?
“Poll: Trump approval rises among black, hispanic voters amid convention,” The Hill wrote, just a few days ago.
And rise it did — by 9 percentage points, in fact, according to a Hill-HarrisX poll. Between Aug. 8 and 11, Trump’s approval among registered black voters stood at 15 percent; between Aug. 22 and 25, amid the Republican convention, those numbers rose to 24 percent.
Yes, three-quarters of black voters said they still disapproved of the job Trump was doing. But — but! — it is “important to keep in mind the context provided by the history of the black vote for Republican presidential candidates,” as Gallup wrote.
Republican presidential candidates have on average only won about 10% of the Black vote since 1976. That’s according to Roper Center for Public Opinion Research reported by Gallup.
“This ranges from a low of 4% for John McCain in 2008 (when he ran against Barack Obama) to 17% for Gerald Ford in 1976 (when he ran for re-election against Jimmy Carter,” Gallup wrote. “Since 1984, the average black share of the vote for the GOP candidate has been 9%.”
George W. Bush averaged around 10%.
George H.W. Bush averaged around 10.5%.
Ronald Reagan averaged around 11.5%.
Trump, at 8% in 2016, hit at 24% favor with Blacks amid the convention.
That’s something that should worry Biden. Maybe Trump’s not as much a “piece of s—t” as Hopkins and other desperate Democratic strategists, campaign folks and party faithfuls would like believed?
A couple more fires, a few more brick-throws, a handful more broken windows and smashed cars, and Biden could very well just pack up and call it quits.
“Four new national polls conducted nearly entirely after last week’s Republican National Convention indicate Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holding an upper-single-digit lead over President Trump,” Fox News reported. “But an average of all national surveys in the White House race shows a slight narrowing.”
Biden is losing luster.
His campaign is wondering: What now? What’s Joe’s message to voters now? I’m Joe Biden — please don’t hit me?
“Democrats are increasingly worried Trump’s ’law and order’ message is resonating with swing-state voters,” Business Insider just wrote.
Exactly. Biden’s campaign, barely out of the basement, is already struggling to breathe.
He’s just one violent protest away from dumpster dive.
• Cheryl Chumley can be reached at cchumley@washingtontimes.com or on Twitter, @ckchumley. Listen to her podcast “Bold and Blunt” by clicking HERE. And never miss her column; subscribe to her newsletter by clicking HERE.
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