OPINION:
No matter who wins the coming election in the United States, we will sometime in the relatively near future find ourselves back at the negotiating table with the Iranians. The issues at hand are too significant and too dangerous for us not to make the effort to resolve them.
The last time we sat down with the Iranians we were fleeced. It behooves us then to face up to what we did wrong the first time around and ensure that this time we end up with a deal that advances the cause of world peace and does not enrich the ayatollahs and their henchmen.
The original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was as near an act of abject appeasement as we are likely to see in our lifetimes. We began negotiations by accepting the Iranian precondition that their ballistic missile systems would not be discussed. Since the only real point of having those missiles for Tehran is to carry nuclear warheads, the refusal to even consider giving them up should have been considered what we in the intel business would call a “clue.” It was ignored. We pressed ahead.
What we ended up with was a deal, which imposed limited, reversible caps on the production of plutonium and the enrichment of uranium. They required Iran to fully walk away from nothing. Enforcement measures were weak at best. In a perfect world, the JCPOA might slow Iranian progress toward a nuclear weapon. It did nothing to permanently end that threat.
Similar limitations apply to all of the U.N. measures, which were intended to end Iran’s proliferation activities and prevent it from acquiring advanced conventional weapons. They are in danger of expiring, and the usual suspects, like the Russians, have made clear they cannot wait to start shipping top of the line weaponry to Tehran.
In return for agreeing to the limited conditions it accepted, of course, Iran got a huge windfall of cash. It put that money to use immediately. From Yemen to Syria to Baghdad, the ayatollahs set the Middle East on fire.
We dare not risk a repeat of this kind of debacle in a future round of negotiations. The Trump administration has done quite a bit already to shift matters in our favor. There is a great deal more, though, that needs to be done to set the conditions for successful negotiations and guarantee we have the leverage we need to make a real deal.
Sanctions are good. They are not enough. The rial is in free fall, unemployment is skyrocketing and inflation is out of control. Yet, the ayatollahs remain unconvinced they are cornered, and they have not yet forsworn counter measures like the ongoing Shia militia attacks in Iraq.
The ayatollahs need to feel military pressure as well. They need to be convinced that, while we want peace, we will take whatever steps necessary to prevent them from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. And, in the short term, they need to feel real consequences for actions against U.S. forces.
Iranian proxy forces on the ground in Iraq should pay an immediate price for their actions against our personnel. We have the intelligence and special operations capabilities to strike back effectively. We should use those capabilities.
We should stop making noises about withdrawing from Iraq. That is precisely what the Iranians want. Tehran needs to understand we are not quitting and going home, and their minions need to feel rapid, disproportionate pain every time they target us.
The Department of Defense should update its plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities and sharpen those capabilities to a razor’s edge. The exercises should include our regional partners. We should also take a hard look at our missile defense systems and do whatever is necessary to prevent our forces and our allies in the Middle East from being targeted by Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles.
We should continue to expand and deepen our relationships with friendly Arab states and Israel and telegraph to Tehran the growing power and cohesion of an alliance focused on containing Iranian revolutionary expansionism. What the ayatollahs need to see from their increasingly precarious perch is the walls closing in.
When we have set these preconditions and tilted the table in our favor, we will be in a position to sit down with the Iranians and deal from a position of strength. A real agreement will be in reach, one that ends their mad ambitions of becoming a nuclear power and a regional hegemon. We will be in a position to impose concrete, verifiable measures. In combination with the progress being made with regard to the longstanding Arab-Israeli conflict, we may even be able to realistically hope for lasting peace in the Middle East after 70 years of bloodshed and chaos.
Joe Biden and his advisers have made clear that should they win in November they intend to simply return to the nullity that was the JCPOA. It was bad enough the first time we signed on to that surrender document. It will be a disaster of incalculable proportions if we do so again.
What the Trump administration has done so far has been well calculated and largely successful. Our position vis-a-vis the Iranians has improved immeasurably since Barack Obama left office. The time is now to travel the final mile and to set the preconditions for a truly historic agreement with Tehran.
Negotiations with Iran are coming. Let’s do the needful to ensure we are in a position to capitalize on them. This president has already been nominated for three Nobel Peace Prizes for his work in bringing Arabs and Israelis together. If we make the right moves now there is every reason to hope that he may yet end the threat of the Iranian nuclear program as well.
• Sam Faddis, former CIA operations officer with experience in the conduct of intelligence operations in the Middle East, South Asia and Europe, is a senior analyst at Ravenna Associates, a strategic communications company. He is the author of “Beyond Repair: The Decline and Fall of the CIA” and, with Mike Tucker, “Operation Hotel California: The Clandestine War Inside Iraq.”
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