Sen. Lindsey Graham will be front and center when the country tunes in Monday for the partisan battle at confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett.
The South Carolina Republican’s prominent role leading the Judiciary Committee, however, won’t necessarily be a boon of free publicity back home, where he’s fighting for political survival in one of the toughest reelection bouts of his career.
The race unexpectedly heated up in the fall and the three-term senator now is tied in the polls with Democratic challenger Jamie Harrison, a 44-year-old associate chairman of the Democratic National Committee who formerly chaired the state party.
“I think if you had told any of us back in March or April that this was coming, we would have been shocked. It has been a perfect storm of events and circumstances,” said Danielle Vinson, a politics professor at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina.
The Supreme Court battle is at the very center of that storm, highlighting the balancing act Mr. Graham needs to pull off.
Mr. Graham’s failed presidential run in 2016 and subsequent alliance with President Trump has made him a national political figure. But that’s not necessarily helpful for him back in South Carolina, where Trump fatigue amongst some Republicans and accusations of hypocrisy are hurting him.
“Being so close to the president is a double-edged sword. If you hug too tight, disaffected Republicans or moderates don’t like it. If you distance yourself from the president, the president’s base gets angry. It’s a fine line to balance,” said a South Carolina Republican strategist who didn’t want to be identified.
Mr. Harrison, who is Black and a former Capitol Hill staffer for longtime South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, gained momentum in the spring as the Black Lives Matter campaign gained traction across the country, energizing young and minority voters. A native of Orangeburg, he was able to hammer out his message as someone who knew the state well without much pushback early on from the Graham campaign.
“Graham didn’t realize until it was late in the game that he actually had a race on his hands, and as a result, Harrison got a huge head start,” said Ms. Vinson.
Additionally, Mr. Harrison benefited from a flood of campaign cash. In the second quarter, he brought in nearly $14 million — nearly doubling what he brought in in his first three months — compared to Mr. Graham’s $8.4 million, according to federal campaign finance reports.
His third-quarter haul of $57 million, which the Harrison campaign announced Sunday, set a new record for third-quarter fundraising by a U.S. Senate candidate.
Mr. Graham hasn’t been shy about the money problems either, going on Fox News several times in the past few weeks with fundraising pleas.
“What changed is that Jamie Harrison is being supported by a historic deluge of cash. He’s raising more every week than a normal South Carolina statewide campaign,” the Republican strategist told The Washington Times.
The Supreme Court fight might be a way for Mr. Graham to bring back some of the Trump-wary conservatives who nevertheless overwhelmingly support the president’s judicial picks.
Indeed, the Graham campaign is going full throttle to promote the senator’s role in confirming conservative judges, with the crowning jewel being Judge Barrett’s appointment to the Supreme Court.
Mr. Graham was a vocal figure in both confirmation hearings for Mr. Trump’s two previous picks for the high court, Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Justice Neil Gorsuch. But this week’s confirmation hearings will be his first as chairman of the committee.
“Senator Graham is fighting for South Carolina, helping families and businesses get through the pandemic, and working to ensure a conservative Supreme Court with Judge Amy Coney Barrett as the newest member,” said TW Arrighi, a Graham campaign spokesman. “Meanwhile, Democrat Jaime Harrison in on his way to spending $100 million in out-of-state, liberal money in an attempt to buy a Senate seat with wall-to-wall negative ads.”
“’Hiding Harrison’ thinks he can hide his radical views from voters and run from reporters, but South Carolinians know a liberal Democrat when they see one. Make no mistake — our internal polling has us on track for a victory in November, but Senator Graham is fighting for every vote as he never takes anything for granted.”
The Harrison campaign did not respond to request for comment for this story.
In 2014, Mr. Graham sailed to victory with a 15-point margin in his last bid for reelection in the reliably red state. Mr. Graham’s seat has been held by a Republican since 1956 and Sen. Tim Scott’s seat has been in the GOP column since 2005.
Last week, The Cook Political Report moved the South Carolina Senate race from a ’Leans Republican’ to ’Toss-up’ — meaning it’s too close to call.
So how does either one break out of this dead heat?
Mr. Graham will likely continue to hammer his challenger as a liberal member of the Democratic establishment, rather than a moderate from a swing district.
Mr. Harrison needs to continue to find ways to chip away at wavering Republicans from the GOP ticket.
And, Ms. Vinson pointed out, it’s ultimately going to come down to who can drive out the vote best on Election Day.
• Gabriella Muñoz can be reached at gmunoz@washingtontimes.com.
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