Sen. Martha McSally traveled Tuesday with President Trump aboard Air Force One to her home state of Arizona, where her political fortunes appear to be directly tied to his.
At the Honeywell International plant in Phoenix, Mr. Trump praised Ms. McSally, calling her a “fantastic person” and crediting her with bringing home the bacon for her constituents.
“She’s fighting to uncover the full truth about the China situation and how the World Health Organization handled the outbreak, and what happened,” Mr. Trump said, alluding to the ongoing fallout from the coronavirus.
The special election between Ms. McSally, a retired Air Force colonel and combat pilot, and Democrat Mark Kelly, an astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, is seen as a must-win for Democrats if they hope to flip control of the Senate.
“It is no secret that McSally is doing nothing to distance herself from the president,” said Mike Noble, of OH Predictive Insights. “If anything she is absolutely embracing him.”
“Based on the numbers, it would appear McSally is along for the ride,” he said.
The Trump influence is going to be felt in races across the country. Democrats are eager to make the election a referendum on Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus and the nation’s economic struggles.
John Miles Coleman, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the Trump coattails will be tested in the battle for the Senate.
“A lot of these races are pretty tightly yoked to the presidential contest,” Mr. Coleman said. “We’ve seen in 2016, for example, every state that had a Senate race in 2016 voted the exact same way for president and the Senate.”
He said the special election in Arizona could prove to be an exception this election cycle — suggesting Mr. Trump and Mr. Kelly, who has raised more money than Ms. McSally, could both win.
“There are a few rare cases like that, but overall I would expect the presidential results to track pretty closely with the Senate races,” Mr. Coleman said.
Ms. McSally lost the 2018 race against Kyrsten Sinema, who became the first Democrat to hold a Senate seat from Arizona since 1995.
Republican Gov. Doug Ducey then appointed Ms. McSally to the seat previously held by late Sen. John McCain.
Running with Mr. Trump atop the ticket, she now finds herself in the middle of the GOP’s push to defend its 53-47 majority in the Senate, where the two independents caucus with Democrats.
Republicans are heavily favored to defeat Sen. Doug Jones, the Democrat who stunned the world by winning a 2017 special election in Alabama under circumstances seen as unlikely to happen again.
To flip the Senate, Democrats, therefore, likely will have to win a net of three Senate seats and win the White House, which would give them the vice presidency and the tie-breaking vote in the chamber.
If Mr. Trump wins a second term, they will need to pick up a net of four seats.
“In case there was any doubt, control of the Senate is at stake in November,” said Nathan Gonzales, of Inside Politics, a nonpartisan election tracker. “It’s been that way for most of the cycle, but some people are just waking up to reality.
In addition to the race in Arizona, Democrats are targeting Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan M. Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
Polls show those races are competitive, and that Democrats also are within striking distances in other states, including Montana.
A Montana State University poll released Tuesday showed that Republican Sen. Steve Daines was trailing Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock by a 46%-39% margin. Mr. Bullock held a 46%-32% lead among self-declared independents.
In Arizona, Ms. McSally also is struggling with independents in her race against Mr. Kelly.
The latest OH Predictive Insights poll showed Mr. Kelly with a 51%-42% lead over Ms. McSally, and a massive 40-point edge among the independent voters.
Independents played a key role in powering Ms. Sinema to victory two years ago, and have been moving in a center-left direction in recent elections, according to pollsters.
Senate Democrats are projecting confidence in Arizona.
“Martha McSally is an unelected Senator who’s on track to get rejected at the ballot box two election cycles in a row,” said Stewart Boss, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign arm for the Senate GOP.
Mr. Boss said Ms. McSally has been on the wrong side of the issues that voters care about, and said Mr. Kelly would be “an independent voice for Arizona.”
The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee did not return a request for comment.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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