OPINION:
Three times in the past 11 months the voters of Israel have gone to the polls to elect a new government. And although the returns are not yet final, it’s reasonable to guess that this week they have finally succeeded. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party seems close to achieving a working majority in parliament. Indeed, even if Likud falls a seat or two short in the Knesset, it is likely that its improvement since last October’s balloting will prompt a few defections from other parties.
In the meantime, this week’s outcome could be described as a remarkable vote of confidence in the prime minister who, last year, passed David Ben-Gurion’s tenure to become Israel’s longest-serving premier. The 70-year-old Mr. Netanyahu formed his first government as long ago as 1996 and, after a decade-long interregnum, has been prime minister without interruption since 2009. A generation of younger Israelis has scarcely known anybody else in power.
Weakened by adverse results in last April’s election, and unable to construct a government last fall, Mr. Netanyahu’s career was widely thought to be finished. Indeed, the political obituaries have been written. Yet it is Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents — notably his center-left challenger, former army chief Benny Gantz — who now find themselves exhausted. This is the third time Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party has failed to break through to win a majority, and while some opposition gains were recorded (notably among Israel’s Arab parties), the political momentum is on Mr. Netanyahu’s side.
The question is for how long. To begin with, there is an immediate and unprecedented problem in Israeli governance: Mr. Netanyahu is about to stand trial on felony charges of corruption. It is not at all clear whether somebody in such legal jeopardy would be eligible to form a government, and the courts have not yet clarified the matter. Of course, it is possible that the prime minister’s political status, especially his latest mandate, would enable him to reach some sort of settlement or plea bargain. It is equally possible that no such exception to the rules can be made and that Israel will find itself — a couple of weeks after this latest election — in political turmoil, again.
In addition, a certain uncertainty prevails. Israeli voters clearly prefer Mr. Netanyahu’s approach to security issues and value his close working relationship with President Trump. But any new Knesset coalition is likely to require the presence of ultra-Orthodox parties that exercise a disproportionate influence over issues related to religion and the state. This has been a problem not only for domestic Israeli politics but for relations between Israeli and American Jews as well.
Which brings us to our own presidential election. With one or two exceptions, none of the Democratic contenders expresses the same level of support for Israel that used to be a hallmark of U.S. policy. Or put another way: If Benjamin Netanyahu encounters a new American president next January, his legendary political and diplomatic skills will be put to the test in a new, and potentially rancorous, relationship. His jousts with Israeli judges and newspapers could look like child’s play by comparison.
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