OPINION:
“Lisbon is no more, but they dance in Paris,” Voltaire wrote after an earthquake in 1755 killed tens of thousands in the Portuguese city.
And so it is today. Rome, Paris and Madrid, at least as we know them, are effectively “no more.” Commerce, except for a few essential services, have been shut down in Italy, France, and Spain. Italians — known for their raucous, social culture — aren’t permitted to leave their homes, except under very limited circumstances.
COVID-19, the viral infection that emerged from central China late last fall, is rampaging across Europe. Hundreds of Italians are dying each day from it — nearly 400 people on Saturday alone — and the trajectories for France and Spain look similarly grim. Meanwhile, the number of infections is growing exponentially.
But still “they dance” here in America. Over the weekend, bars and restaurants across the U.S. were packed with St. Patrick’s Day revelers. In Washington, the hip 14th Street corridor was bustling, as was New York’s East Village, according to local reports.
This is dispiriting news. COVID-19 passes easily from person to person, even among those who feel fine. The virus has a long incubation period — that is, the time in which a person has the virus and can pass it onto others before developing symptoms. Moreover, some may become sick but only experience relatively mild symptoms. They, too, can pass it on to others. All of which is to say — tight, crowded spaces are terrible places to be right now.
We know that COVID-19 is particularly vicious on the elderly, smokers and those with preexisting medical conditions, though it can sicken anybody. It is estimated to kill about 1% of the total number of people who get it, making it 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu.
With its high degree of contagion, the U.S. death toll could be staggering. Some projections suggest that up to half the country could contract the virus. That would mean more than 1 million people dead. This is not a “media” fiction. These are figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The blithe indifference of so many Americans to the COVID-19 pandemic cannot — and will not — last. The number of cases is increasing exponentially. Soon, the number of deaths will.
There’s a lag between when COVID-19 infections spike and when death tolls rise. COVID-19 takes a long time — several weeks, usually — to kill its victims. The negative consequences of this are two-fold: For one, it has enabled many Americans (and before us, Italians) to be lulled into a false sense of security. If you see numbers indicating a large number of infections but very few deaths, you think the virus is less deadly than it is.
Secondly, it has contributed to the overcrowding of hospitals in Italy — and, according to some local reports, Seattle — and the shortage of ventilators needed to keep people alive. Patients are spending long periods in ICUs before succumbing. This has negative consequences not only for COVID-19 patients but also for people suffering from other ailments who need critical care.
Because the U.S. has yet to impose the kind of restrictions that France, Italy, and Spain have, only social stigma will do. People crowding into packed bars and restaurants should be treated as something akin to drunken drivers, most of whom don’t crash. But they elevate the risk for everybody. They can end up killing not only themselves but others.
The notion that staying home is the right thing to do in the face of an external challenge is novel for many of us.
“We spent decades responding to terrorism and shootings with ’go out and live’ — leaving us unable to process a new crisis that requires obedience and staying inside. The virus isn’t cowed by irreverent courage,” observed the former political operative Shawn Hils.
The COVID-19 crisis has also exposed the sickening indifference that some have toward the elderly. Heather MacDonald, the normally perspicacious Manhattan Institute scholar, sniffed that “approximately 89% of Italy’s coronavirus deaths had been over the age of 70, those victims were already nearing the end of their life spans. They might have soon died from another illness.”
Candace Owens, the political activist, characterized it as “good news” that Italy us suffering because it has “the oldest population in Europe.”
So much for All Lives Matter. To suggest that “only” the old are dying betrays a hideous mindset.
Secondly, it just isn’t factual that “only” the old will die from COVID-19. In France, for example, half of those in critical condition from the virus are under age 50. Moreover, there is evidence among survivors in Hong Kong that COVID-19 can produce long-lasting damage on even those who recover. Doctors there tested 12 people who had recovered from the virus and found that nine had seen reduced lung capacity of between 20% and 30%.
Dance, America, if you must. But do it at home.
• Ethan Epstein is editorial editor of The Washington Times. Contact him at eepstein@washingtontimes.com or on Twitter @ethanepstiiiine.
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