OPINION:
Faculty at my university recently received a call for proposals to develop innovative online courses — especially introductory courses with large enrollments — for the fall semester. That will prove as disruptive to faculty lives as a letter from the local draft board to report for military service.
Lecture classes with hundreds of students pull down average credit-hour costs to accommodate small seminars, field work and personal instruction necessary to deliver quality degrees in majors ranging from anthropology to zoology.
Without a COVID-19 vaccine and with social distancing essential, large lectures simply aren’t possible but the costs of tripling the number of sections and providing safe residential facilities are even more daunting.
In most disciplines, a quality learning experience can’t be delivered simply by putting ordinary lectures online. In economics, concepts like price elasticity of demand, economic rent — the premium a star quarterback receives — and the social costs of product differentiation are impossible to put across to all reasonably qualified students without some direct instructor interaction.
Already too many unqualified students are admitted and passed through without obtaining the analytical and critical thinking skills that employers expect for entry-level professional or managerial positions.
Blended learning — featuring professional media quality videos with custom integrated reading materials and exercises and online direct access to faculty and teaching assistants — as well as other innovative formats, can do the job.
The bad news for most faculty is once such content is perfected the Caruso Effect will take over. Before the famed opera singer, most cities had local performers and music halls but his career coincided with the commercialization of the phonograph. Suddenly, stars at the Metropolitan Opera and vocalists at the Palace in New York could be heard everywhere — again and again — and that put a dent in the careers of second-tier performers.
Radio and talking motion pictures followed. The likes of Nelson Eddy and Jeanette MacDonald, Maurice Chevalier and Al Jolson turned vaudeville theaters into movie houses and displaced less-famous actors. The Orpheum chain sold out to RKO.
Accredited higher education has lagged terribly at exploiting technology for instruction. We are quite good at automating the plumbing — administrative support, student recordkeeping and reading content that supports in-class instruction. Platforms like Blackboard are commonplace, but faculty cling to classrooms and whiteboards.
The startup costs for truly high-quality, engaging content is simply too high, and universities lacked the incentive to adequately finance those. Once a course is substantially automated, it can be offered again and again at low marginal costs but the saving can only be accomplished by eliminating tenured faculty.
Harvard University offers an online liberal arts degree for $60,000 plus the expenses associated with taking four courses on campus. The average cost of attending a private college is nearly $200,000.
Paying a lot more to attend a regional college or university will make little sense if the University of Maryland and a few other major institutions get serious about emulating Harvard.
As professionals in other industries have applied technology and raised productivity far more effectively, universities have been forced to raise their prices to continue attracting young people to obtain a Ph.D. and climb the academic ladder.
Over the last two decades, college tuition and fees, net of discounts, rose 171% — health care and overall inflation were up 99% and 53% percent. That has been sustained by students amassing a $1.5 trillion debt, the influx of foreign students who pay out-of-state rates at public universities, which enroll about three-quarters of all students, and many domestic students traveling far from childhood homes to pay out-of-state rates.
Tighter restrictions on student visas and more costly air travel once adequate social distancing is implemented will dramatically reduce the number of students paying the highest tuition in public and private institutions.
Even before the COVID-19 crisis, students were pushing back on big price tags. Since 2016, more than 60 institutions have closed or merged into other schools, another 10 percent of private liberal arts colleges were likely to fold, and 30 percent of schools rated by Moody’s Investor Service were in the red.
Now major universities have a compelling incentive to reduce the time students spend on campus — perhaps to one year out of four for an undergraduate degree. The industry will consolidate as many fewer tenured professors earning six-figure salaries will be needed. Well-rewarded star performers will be assisted by legions of instructors and tutors with less training, lesser-known institutions will close and prices should fall.
• Peter Morici is an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.