OPINION:
On June 16, 2020, North Korea announced that it demolished the Joint Liaison Office with South Korea, located in Kaesong, North Korea. This development shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise since Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced last week that North Korea was ceasing all dialogue with the South and would abolish the Joint Liaison Office, noting that she was deferring to the North Korean military.
Kim Yo-jong said that this was in response to the propaganda balloons being sent into North Korea from those North Korean defectors now living in South Korea. She said North Korea was holding South Korea and the government of Moon Jae-in responsible for these provocative acts from the South.
The balloons are, in my view, a cover for North Korea’s overall unhappiness with South Korea. The failure of the Hanoi Summit in February 2019 between President Trump and leader Kim Jong-un, when the North apparently expected the United States to agree to the lifting of sanctions for a halt to activities at Yongbyon, is an event that obviously continues to anger Kim Jong-un.
Thus South Korea’s continued inability to get some form of sanctions relief for the North, either by pressuring the United States to lift some sanctions or to defy the United States and independently provide some relief, like with the resumption of South Korean visits to Mount Kumgang, or reuniting separated families from the Korean War or reopening sections of the Kaesong Industrial Park, and presenting it as a humanitarian gesture due to the COVID-19 pandemic, probably motivated Kim Jung-un to make the decision to cease all contact with the South.
The symbolism and economic value of the Kaesong Industrial Park, established in 2003 with more than 120 factories and 50,000 North Korean workers, supported by managers and investment from the South, should not be underestimated. This was a major initiative between the two Koreas and the economic value to the North was significant. So, from North Korea’s perspective, South Korea couldn’t or wouldn’t produce, which angered Kim Jong-un and probably motivated him to designate his sister, Kim Yo-jong, as the new senior official responsible for relations with the South. And Kim Yo-jong’s message is clear: South Korea is weak and can’t be trusted.
The symbolism of demolishing the Joint Liaison Office also happened on the 20th anniversary of the June 15, 2000, Peace Summit between Kim Jong-il, the father of Kim Jong-un, and Kim Dae-jung, the leader of South Korea. This Peace Summit ended with a declaration that both leaders would bring peace and reconciliation to the Korean Peninsula. In fact, Kim Dae-Jung received the Nobel Peace prize for this peace summit.
Given these events, and the vitriol from Kim Yo-jong, the sister and likely heir apparent to Kim Jong-un, it’s possible the North will reintroduce the North Korean military into those sections of the DMZ that were demilitarized in 2018 — after President Moon Jae-in and leader Kim Jong-un, in April 2018, signed the Panmunjom Declaration, committing both sides to peace, prosperity and reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula is tense and the North, unhappy with the United States, is holding the South responsible for not doing more to provide some sanctions relief, especially at a time when there’s considerable malnourishment and possibly some starvation in the North, likely exacerbated by cases of COVID-19, despite the North’s protestations that they have no cases of COVID-19.
It’s likely North Korea will continue to put pressure on South Korea and escalate tension with the United States, with additional missile launches and the threat of another nuclear test, expecting the United States and South Korea eventually to relent and provide North Korea with some form of sanctions relief or a promise of relief if the North agreed to resume negotiations with the United States. This has been the North’s playbook: When unhappy, escalate tension and the United States and South Korea eventually will accommodate.
• Joseph R. DeTrani was the former Special Envoy for negotiations with North Korea. The views are the author’s and not any government agency or department.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.