When will Congress get us out of Yemen?

OPINION:

The Trump administration intends to sell more weapons to Saudi Arabia. The weapons will, without question, be used in the Yemeni civil war by Saudi forces fighting Houthi rebels there. The proposed sale has, predictably enough, drawn fierce resistance from the usual suspects, Sens. Bob Menendez, New Jersey Democrat, and Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, and others who deplore the civilian casualties taking place in Yemen. The Saudis, also predictably enough, assert that American precision-guided weapons will help avoid collateral damage and the killing of non-combatants. 

The debate is seemingly endless as is the war in Yemen. Isn’t there a case to be made for the proposition that we and our Saudi allies should just walk away from Yemen? Is it really worth continuing this struggle just to keep a group of ragtag mountain bandits from seizing control of a desolate corner of the Arabian Peninsula half a world away?

What would a Houthi takeover in Yemen mean?

To begin with it would mean that a nation of almost 30 million people with an extensive land border with Saudi Arabia would fall under the control of a group that is a proxy force for Iran, armed, trained and in many cases directed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. This takeover would add to the considerable threat already posed to Saudi Arabia by Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. In many ways it would complete the encirclement of the kingdom. 

Houthi forces have on many occasions already attacked Saudi Arabia proper with drones and missiles. Those attacks would certainly intensify after a Houthi takeover. They would also likely be accompanied by cross-border operations. Iran’s goal vis a vis Saudi Arabia is not coexistence. It is the settling of a 1,500-year-old war between Sunni and Shia Islam and the capture of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

Saudi Arabia cannot accept such an eventuality. We may fantasize momentarily that we can walk away from Yemen and not face the consequences. The Saudis cannot. If we do not sell them arms and stand with them, they will be forced of necessity to go elsewhere in search of arms. That likely means Moscow and another opportunity for Vladimir Putin to gain ground and influence at our expense. It may also, if the threat grows dire enough, mean a deal between Riyadh and Islamabad for the purchase of nuclear weapons and a guarantee against an Iranian existential threat.

A Houthi takeover of Yemen would not simply be a problem for Saudi Arabia, as profound as such a threat might be. Iran, increasingly allied with China, is already in a position to threaten to close the Straits of Hormuz to all international shipping. Houthi control of the eastern shores of the Bab el Mandab would mean Iranian control of the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, through which millions of barrels of oil transit every day. Fracking may have liberated the United States from dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Our allies around the world have no such luxury.

This is not an idle threat. The Houthis, with Iranian assistance, have demonstrated their ability to target ships at sea, including U.S. naval vessels with cruise missiles. They have also employed Iranian-built remote control “drone” boats in attacks on oil tankers. These vessels jammed with explosives provide yet another threat that can be deployed and can significantly complicate the task of protecting commercial shipping.

On Feb. 13, 2020, Vice Adm. James Malloy, commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, told CNN that Iran has a “growing capability in cruise missiles, they have a growing capability in ballistic missiles, they have a growing capability in unmanned surfaced systems, all these things that we watch that are offensive, and destabilizing in nature.”  

In addition, citing a U.S. defense official, CNN reported: “Iran’s military also possesses advanced sea mines, including acoustic and magnetic variants.” The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments. Mining of those channels would be easily accomplished and would necessitate the closure of the Strait to shipping until the completion of time consuming and massively expensive demining operations.

Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb would keep tankers originating in the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal or the SUMED Pipeline. If combined with a closure of the Straits of Hormuz it would virtually cut off Saudi exports to the rest of the world.

Congressional Republicans are set to unveil a new sanctions plan against Iran. This is welcome news. Throttling Iran economically remains an integral part of any plan to control Iranian expansionism and maximize the chances for regime change.  

Sanctions alone are insufficient, however. We cannot simply sit back and wait for sanctions to work. Iran and its proxies are engaged in a worldwide war against the United States and its allies. We cannot walk away and hope for the best no matter how much we wish such an option was on the table. 

When will Congress get us out of Yemen? Let’s hope it’s not until the job is done and the Houthis are defeated.

• Sam Faddis, a former CIA operations officer with experience in the conduct of intelligence operations in the Middle East, South Asia and Europe, is a senior analyst at Ravenna Associates, a strategic communications company.