OPINION:
Strong job creation offers President Trump an inroad to core Democratic constituencies. Attributed to President Bush, high unemployment in such groups certainly benefited President Obama in 2008, and even President Clinton in 2016. Low unemployment now opens the door to a Trump challenge that could dramatically reshape 2020.
A job’s importance cannot be overstated. Ronald Reagan said “I think the best possible social program is a job.” Reaching the same conclusion, from the opposite direction, Hyman Minsky, the iconoclastic economist of the left said: “A necessary ingredient of any war against poverty is a program of job creation.”
The importance of jobs on politics is equally understood. As the financial crisis mounted and Mr. Obama took office in January, following his decisive 2008 victory, overall unemployment was 7.6 percent. Among core groups, unemployment and low Republican support went hand in hand.
Among women, unemployment was 6.2 percent and they voted just 42 percent Republican. Among blacks, the figures were 12.6 percent unemployment and just 5 percent Republican support. Among Hispanics, unemployment was 9.7 percent and just 29 percent Republican support.
Eight years later, unemployment had fallen, although the economy remained tepid, yet Mr. Trump still received support close to Republican 2008 levels. Following his shocking 2016 upset, when Mr. Trump took office in January 2017, overall unemployment was still a high 4.8 percent.
Yet even with poor unemployment rates, Mr. Trump still performed poorly with key Democratic groups. Among women, unemployment was 4.4 percent, but Mr. Trump had won just 41 percent of their vote the previous November. Among blacks, unemployment was 7.7 percent, but Mr. Trump had won just 8 percent. And among Hispanics, unemployment was 5.9 percent, yet he had won just 28 percent.
That these groups were part of the Democratic base, plus their association of the financial crisis with the Bush administration, did Mr. Trump no favors. Now, however, Mr. Trump’s own favorable jobs record offers him an important opening.
The latest jobs report showed overall unemployment remaining remarkably low at 3.5 percent — despite the labor force participation rate having rebounded as well. However, among particular groups it is especially striking.
Women’s unemployment rate is now just 3.2 percent — 1.2 percentage points below where it was three years ago. Blacks’ rate was 5.9 percent — 1.8 percentage points lower than three years ago. Hispanics’ rate was 4.2 percent — 1.7 percentage points lower.
Such dramatic improvements, which can be directly linked to his tenure and are markedly better than those of his two predecessors, offer Mr. Trump an unparalleled opportunity. Further, these improvements have occurred in groups that have not been predisposed to vote Republican. Suddenly, Mr. Trump has given them not just a reason, but arguably the most persuasive one.
How powerful even small inroads could be is demonstrated by the closeness of many 2016 state outcomes. Because these groups are part of Democrats’ core electorate, any Trump gains count double — a subtraction from his Democratic opponent and an addition to his total.
Even a small gain could effectively cement his impressive but tenuous 2016 electoral vote total. It could also move states he narrowly lost into his column. Mr. Trump lost four states — Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire — by less than 3 percent of the popular vote. That means even a 1.5 percent swing from Democratic constituencies, such as these core groups, would add these to his 2020 total, giving him even greater security with his 2016 math.
There are undoubtedly events that reshape electoral configurations. Few are as important as economic events writ large — witness the Great Depression’s resulting realignment. Nowhere does the economy hit home harder than an individual’s job. Mr. Trump has the ability to not just capitalize on this himself, but offers Republicans an unsurpassed ability they have not had for years — and may not have again anytime soon.
• J.T. Young served in the Office of Management and Budget and at the Treasury Department.
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