South Korea holds the equivalent of its midterm elections in two months, and the outcome could have major consequences for Seoul’s outreach to North Korea and the future of President Trump’s stalled personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Election watchers say that major gains by the conservative Liberty Korea Party opposition in the April 15 parliamentary vote could undercut President Moon Jae-in’s hopes to enhance economic and diplomatic ties with the North, while a new mandate for Mr. Moon’s Democratic Party could widen the divide over the best way forward on the divided — and heavily armed — Korean Peninsula.
“I feel Korean politics has never been this chaotic in my whole life,” said Sang-hyun Lee, president of the Korean Nuclear Policy Society, adding that the party that wins the election will have substantial leverage over the country’s foreign policy.
South Korea’s political parties are sharply divided over Mr. Moon’s North Korea detente policy, with conservatives saying Mr. Moon has failed to focus on the dangers posed by the North’s nuclear and conventional weapons threats, and has lobbied for denuclearization as top priority. He has long advocated a policy of engagement with the North, occasionally unnerving the U.S. with his outreach efforts to Pyongyang, while largely maintaining support from the ruling Democratic Party.
“We need an international solution to uphold the three principles of peace on the Korean Peninsula: no war, mutual security guarantees and prosperity,” Mr. Moon said in his New Year’s address. “But there are things that can be done through North-South cooperation. … I believe that Chairman Kim shares the same determination.”
According to Young-jun Kim, a member of Mr. Moon’s National Security Advisory Board, control of the National Assembly could fall to either party. He and Mr. Lee spoke at a forum last week on the election hosted by George Washington University.
While President Moon’s approval rating rose to 47% at the start of this year, according to Gallup Korea, Mr. Kim says that the National Assembly election will likely be built on which party can sufficiently address growing security issues, including the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and Seoul’s sometimes rocky relations with key allies such as the U.S. and Japan.
“We don’t know what the outcome will be in two months or so,” Mr. Kim said. “Foreign policy issues have been influential in the general election over the past decade.”
The highly anticipated election comes after the dramatic fallout of a controversial electoral reform bill passed by the national parliament in December. Overcoming a furious three-day filibuster by members of the Liberty Korea Party, the bill changes the current formula for awarding of the 47 proportional representation seats in the Assembly, which experts say will help smaller minority parties at the expense of both of the two major parties.
The anger generated by the electoral reform fight reflects a growing partisan divide, analysts say.
“Korean politics these days is like a matter of life or death,” Mr. Lee said.
Foreign policy figures to be both a major factor and a wild card in the election.
Mr. Moon has strongly cheered on President Trump’s unprecedented personal diplomacy with North Korea, but could find himself exposed as the diplomatic impasse between Pyongyang and Washington deepens. North Korea has launched a series of test missiles and adopted increasingly hostile rhetoric toward the U.S., claiming Washington has failed to deliver promised relief on crushing economic sanctions.
The Trump administration has stuck to its demand for an end to the North’s nuclear programs, but Mr. Trump could face pressure in an election year to show progress on one of his signature foreign policy initiatives.
Recent unresolved negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea regarding Seoul’s defense spending also could play into April’s vote. The Moon government so far has resisted Washington’s demands for a sharp increase in Seoul’s payment for the U.S. troop presence and security umbrella on the peninsula.
Mr. Lee said he felt “embarrassment” at Mr. Trump’s budget demands, warning the U.S. risks “losing something money can never buy.”
“Sometimes I think [Mr. Trump] is a genius, and sometimes I think he is an idiot,” Mr. Lee said.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.