OPINION:
Fifty-one is now the most important number in politics for conservatives and Republicans. Fifty-one Republican senators after the November election guarantee a continuing Republican majority, whatever happens in the presidential race; every higher number is that much better. In many critical respects, saving a Republican Senate majority is more urgent than who wins the White House (although if President Trump wins, 50 will suffice).
If former Vice President Joseph R. Biden prevails, a Republican Senate will be a critical check against a rerun of Barack Obama’s presidency, and even more consequential, the mounting strength of the Democrats’ radical left wing. If Democrats control all three elected federal government components, there is no telling how much damage the country will suffer.
Even if Mr. Trump wins, which is still quite possible, Democratic control of both houses of Congress would be devastating. For example, without even a minimal Republican ascendancy in the Senate in his second term, what kind of judicial nominee could be confirmed? Nothing to write home about for philosophical conservatives, that’s for sure.
The trouble begins with Mr. Trump himself, exemplifying the distortions his anomalous presidency has caused in America’s political culture. Historically in our exceptional republic, ideas and interests converged around individuals who, as candidates, advanced philosophies and programs. Today, because of Mr. Trump, Republicans find themselves torqueing their long-held ideals around the candidate, rather than the candidate embracing (and actually believing) the ideals.
Loyalty to Mr. Trump personally rather than philosophy (which he is woefully lacking) is his measure of judgment.
This is contrary not only to America’s experience generally, but especially to the modern conservative movement. Like many others, I got my start handing out leaflets in the 1964 Goldwater campaign. Goldwater authored books with titles like “The Conscience of a Conservative” and “Why Not Victory?” (his Cold War foreign policy). Mr. Trump, not so much. We admired Goldwater for his integrity, guts and candor, but it was his philosophy that really inspired supporters. In 1980, our efforts were rewarded by Ronald Reagan’s historic victory.
No such prospects exist for conservatives in 2020. They know well, and say quietly in private, that Mr. Trump is no conservative. Neither is he a liberal. He simply does not think philosophically or strategically, but only about how to get himself reelected. Nor is Mr. Trump competent at managing the federal government, as his response to the coronavirus pandemic proves.
From the beginning, he has had no coherent strategy, no philosophical direction (federalism, for example, is obscured in Mr. Trump’s chaos), and no sustained program of preventative or mitigative actions. In consequence, the virus and its economic effects alone may be fatal to Mr. Trump’s reelection, justifiably so.
Now trailing badly in public-opinion polls and with time growing short, Mr. Trump’s insistence on personal loyalty is endangering the Republican Senate majority. So, what are conservatives to do, especially those still voting for Mr. Trump? (I will be writing in a real conservative on my ballot.)
First, Trump supporters of whatever sort must forego in November what they did in 2016, namely abandoning candidates who didn’t kiss Mr. Trump’s ring continuously. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Nevada Congressman Joe Heck (seeking an open seat) both criticized Mr. Trump when the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape surfaced. Both immediately suffered significant drops in support, couldn’t regain it and lost.
But can anyone seriously argue that the Republican Party, or even Mr. Trump, is stronger today with only 53 senators rather than 55? Or that we would be worse off defending two more incumbents in 2022, rather than having to claw those seats away from the victorious Democratic incumbents?
Even for Mr. Trump, it is self-defeating to complain that any endangered Republican is insufficiently craven. Addressing actual philosophy, Reagan said, “if I can get 70 or 80 percent of what it is I’m trying to get, yes I’ll take that and then continue to try to get the rest in the future.”
This is not dewy-eyed idealism, but hard-edged realpolitik. Susan Collins, Maine Republican, for instance, is not as conservative as I, but her presence in the Senate is a Republican organizing vote, and she will be palpably more conservative than her Democratic opponent (ask Mr. Justice Kavanaugh). If Mr. Trump doesn’t understand that, it’s one more reason he should lose.
On the other side of the equation, Republicans and independents voting for Mr. Biden because they cannot abide Mr. Trump must be persuaded to split their tickets at the senatorial level. Unless they are prepared to risk radical measures from undivided Democratic control of the national government’s political branches, which the vast majority are not, they must preserve a corrective balance.
Those critics who argue for reprisals against senators who have “enabled” Mr. Trump entirely miss how dramatically the political dynamic will change once he is out of office. “Burning down” the Republican Party because of Mr. Trump is as nonsensical as urban rioters burning down their own homes and neighborhoods. Our post-election attitude toward all Republicans should be Lincolnian: “with malice toward none and charity for all.”
Neither prong of this approach will be easy or comfortable, but all the alternatives are worse. More Republican leaders must state clearly: It is OK to be conservative and against Donald Trump, but it is critical to keep a Republican Senate majority. And it is OK for Trump/MAGA supporters to cut a little slack for their wayward brethren.
Appropriate tactics will vary from state to state where Senate candidates are fighting for their survival, but it needs to begin now. Waiting or ignoring the obvious means an almost certain Republican Senate catastrophe this November.
• John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, served as the 27th U.S. National Security Adviser from 2018 to 2019. He is the author of “The Room Where It Happened.”
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