JOHANNESBURG, South Africa — China’s long-developing diplomatic drive in Africa has hit an unexpected speed bump, even as Beijing seeks to curry more favor on the continent with shipments of aid to deal with the mounting COVID-19 threat.
A hard line from Beijing on debt repayments for struggling African countries and a viral video depicting the apparent mistreatment of African natives in China are casting shadows over China’s “mask diplomacy” — politically targeted and highly publicized shipments of masks, ventilators and other equipment to vulnerable countries around the globe.
In South Africa, the ruling leftist African National Congress has issued an unprecedented rebuke of China over “ill treatment of African nationals,” including forced quarantine based on skin color, “even if they have not come into contact with infected persons.”
The statement, issued by the party’s subcommittee on foreign policy, follows graphic reports and images of black immigrants and students in China being shunned, harassed and forcibly tested for COVID-19.
The ANC statement described the Chinese Communist Party as a “friend and strategic economic partner,” but it called for a “fast-track investigation” and “appropriate action.”
Earlier this month, a group of African ambassadors in China protested the suspected mistreatment of African nationals in Guangzhou, which has the largest community of African expatriates in Asia.
Such mixed messages could signal a major missed opportunity for China and an opening for the U.S. and its allies that have warned African nations about the dangers of a close embrace of Beijing’s money and aid. China, which holds an estimated 80% of Nigeria’s bilateral private debt and accounted for 60% of foreign direct investment in Ethiopia in 2019, has balked at broad repayment concessions even as the global economic meltdown accelerates.
“China is absolutely trying to make the most of this moment,” said Michelle D. Gavin, senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. ambassador to Botswana.
“What we see on the continent is that you have [Chinese] diplomats not just touting China’s assistance but casting aspersions on what others have done or failed to do. So in that sense, I think it’s seen as kind of a critical moment to pivot, to bolster support for the so-called Chinese model.”
Ms. Gavin cautioned, though, that China’s diplomatic offensive is “going to be complicated as the question of debt in particular comes to the forefront.”
Cobus van Staden, a senior researcher with the South African Institute of International Affairs, told Politico last week that there was “a lot of tension” in the Chinese-African relationship on financial and racial grounds.
“I think both of these issues are the newest manifestations of long-term problems,” he said. “Africa’s official response [to its citizens in China] took into account popular sentiment a lot more than it usually would have.”
Chinese officials have scrambled to limit the diplomatic and public relations fallout. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said last week that the government would adjust its restrictions on African nationals, end discrimination in the provision of health care services and give aid to those in financial trouble because of coronavirus-related shutdowns.
New figures indicate Africa is well on its way to becoming the next major hot spot in the COVID-19 pandemic.
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa increased 43% in seven days, and many countries on a continent with 1.3 billion people have a “very, very limited” and “very, very strained” testing capacity, John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters Thursday in Cape Town.
The real numbers are likely much higher, and The Associated Press reported that World Health Organization officials have warned that COVID-19 could kill more than 300,000 people and push 30 million into desperate poverty in Africa alone.
Lower rates
Despite the grim projections, public health experts see some intriguing developments in how the coronavirus that has staggered Europe and the United States is playing out in Africa. They are puzzled about why infection rates are so low in South Africa, one of the few countries in the region with high levels of testing.
The local infection rate is less than 3%, a tiny fraction of the rates reported in the U.S. and some European countries.
Doctors say it could be a result of a vaccine for tuberculosis given at birth in many African countries. Only 2% of Africa’s population is older than 65, reducing the number of those most vulnerable to succumbing to the disease. Others hypothesize that Africa’s lower average level of hygiene may, ironically, give people more resistance to new viruses.
Although the United Nations has warned of a possible 300,000 deaths in Africa, fewer than 15,000 cases have been identified so far.
Lockdowns have had varied success. In Kenya, soldiers have killed 12 people for not complying with the rules.
Millions live in high-density “townships” around cities such as Cape Town, Durban, Johannesburg and Pretoria, the capital. With youth unemployment approaching 60%, and many now unable to sell products by the roadside or travel to jobs deemed nonessential, human rights groups warn that wide-scale food shortages could be imminent.
Image repair
China may get a chance to repair its battered image or revive its investment push if and when African nations get a handle on the health threat and need to revive their moribund economies. With a growing deficit, South Africa could be forced to approach Russia or China for loans in the absence of other funding, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said.
In the past week, Washington has trebled its original assistance package to Pretoria during the pandemic. Some $2.7 million is now available for medical and other needs.
But with 57 million people and a gross domestic product roughly equal to Atlanta’s, the monthlong shutdown is set to leave a hole in the budget. Economists have pointed out that a virus-related ban on tobacco alone is costing the government $20 million a week in lost revenue.
South Africa has low infection numbers despite a casual attitude in much of the country to the government’s lockdown edicts.
In rural South Africa, life is relatively normal regardless of the new laws. In cities, minibus taxis are still crowded. Supermarkets, including a chain owned by Walmart, offer hand sanitizer at the entrance and limit the number of shoppers per store. All local branches of KFC and McDonald’s have been closed.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, under pressure to reopen the economy, is considering his next efforts to halt the virus.
With a looming debt and growing unrest among the poor, experts warn it will be difficult to extend the lockdown.
More broadly, Africa watchers say, the crisis could be a model of great-power cooperation but early signs are bleak.
Some in the U.S. “favor the approach of putting the virus in the context of U.S.-China rivalry, where in fact what is desperately needed is cooperation between the U.S. and China in responding to the African crisis,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria John Campbell, now the senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “As to what the African response is going to be, right now, my sense is that the Chinese are getting the worst part of the deal.”
⦁ Madison Hirenesen contributed to this report.
• Geoff Hill can be reached at ghill@washingtontimes.com.
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