OPINION:
The Democratic Party has moved its convention from July for this year to August in anticipation that the coronavirus may still be a significant issue. There is a very real possibility that the actual convention may have to be virtual.
As the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden probably thinks that he doesn’t want that. All nominees want a coronation, but a virtual convention might save Mr. Biden from a temper tantrum by diehard supporters of Bernie Sanders who might well make an embarrassing scene on the convention floor. This leads to a greater question. Where does the party of Jackson, Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama want to go from here?
Mr. Biden is the party’s presumptive nominee at his point. He represents what has come to pass as the party’s mainstream — which leans to the left of the political spectrum — but not far enough left for Sanders supporters. Rank-and-file Democrats, the kind who at least put political signs in their front yards during political campaigns, generally favor higher taxes as long as someone else pays them.
The elite of the party are generally rich enough that they don’t mind higher taxes. Big labor and the members of the underclasses, which the party traditionally panders to, can be counted on for support because of the network of entitlements that Democrats have built over the years. In normal times, that coalition would give Mr. Biden — and should have given Hillary Clinton — a fair shot at the presidency. But these are not normal times.
Many younger self-identifying Democrats are much farther to the left than the mainstream; the party needed them in 2016, but they stayed away in droves. The lack of enthusiasm for the Clinton mainstream allowed for the Trump electoral victory, and all signs point to the same lethargy toward a Biden campaign among young, very progressive Democrats. This situation places the former vice president in a bind.
Sen. Sanders may have left the campaign, but his supporters believe that he should use his considerable clout to push the party platform farther toward the leftist Socialist-Democrat positions which he has long endorsed. If that happens, many traditional Democrats will be forced to vote against their own self-interest. Organized labor will see the Sanders push toward universal health care as endangering the medical insurance plans built into their contracts over many decades.
In addition, the proposed Sanders programs will drive everyone’s taxes up, not just the big corporations and super-rich who represent the Vermont senator’s favorite targets. Union workers know this. They may be largely blue collar, but they aren’t stupid.
Another, dependable bloc of traditional Democrats that would feel threatened by a sharp leftward turn in the party’s platform are older, church-going African-Americans, who are increasingly concerned by the radical LGBT agenda that many young Sanders supporters are pushing. African-Americans in general are more skeptical of LGTB issues, and Mr. Biden will likely have trouble squaring that circle.
Mr. Biden hopes shore up his support base by wooing the important vote of the nation’s females by promising to name a woman as his running mate. The problem here is that the Democrats nominated a woman to be their standard bearer in 2016, and still lost. It is hard to see that — as an old, white male — he is going to get much more traction than did Mrs. Clinton. The worst-case scenario for Mr. Biden at this point would be a major defection by the Democratic-Socialist faction into a third party which would draft Mr. Sanders — willingly or unwillingly — as a nominee.
Of course, this will all be moot it COVID-19 is still raging in November or if the economy has not recovered and Mr. Trump is blamed by the public. However, if things have settled down and the economy is making the explosive recovery the president is predicting, Mr. Biden will have some hard calls to make. Does he lean farther to the Sanders left and risk losing parts of the Democratic base or does he stay in what passes for a Democratic middle?
If the party tilts to the far left and loses, Mr. Sanders will get the blame. If Mr. Biden stays the party’s establishment course and the far-left refuses to support Mr. Biden causing him to lose, both of them be blamed. Fortunately for both, they will probably be safely ensconced in assisted living by 2024; because the Democratic Party will face a very serious identity crisis.
• Gary Anderson lectures on Alternative Analysis at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.
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