Huge fundraising hauls in key Senate races are making Democrats increasingly optimistic that they can sustain their 2018 momentum into 2020.
Democratic challengers in states such as Arizona, Maine and Iowa outraised Republican incumbents last quarter as they fight for an outside chance of flipping the Senate, where the GOP holds an effective 53-47 majority.
“I do think Democrats still have momentum because their inspiration for contributors in 2018 — Trump — seems to offer even more inspiration for Democrats to engage now than he did in 2018,” said Gary Jacobson, emeritus professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego.
Democrat Mark Kelly, who is challenging Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, raised $5.5 million in the third quarter and has $9.5 million on hand. Ms. McSally raised about $3 million last quarter and had about $5.6 million on hand at the end of September.
Sara Gideon, a Democratic challenger to Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, raised $3.2 million and had $2.8 million on hand. Ms. Collins raised about $2 million, though she had more than $7 million on hand.
In Iowa, Democrat Theresa Greenfield raised $1.1 million, outpacing Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, though Ms. Greenfield has several opponents for the party nomination. Ms. Ernst had close to $4 million on hand, compared to $1.2 million for Ms. Greenfield.
“As vulnerable Republicans continue to face blowback for their toxic records and consistent failures of leadership, strong Democratic candidates are holding them accountable and building winning campaigns that will carry them to victory across the country next November,” said Stewart Boss, a spokesman for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
Still, it’s early in the proceedings since many challengers are still emerging and key races aren’t defined, said Anthony Corrado, professor of government at Colby College in Maine.
“But some of the Democratic challengers have been unusually successful for this point in the campaign and a number of the Republican incumbents are not showing much fundraising momentum at this point,” Mr. Corrado said.
Democrat Amy McGrath raised close to $11 million last quarter in her bid to topple Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, finishing September with $6.8 million on hand. Mr. McConnell, who easily won reelection in 2014, raised about $1.9 million and had banked $9 million as of the start of October.
“Republican candidates did well by posting impressive quarters — it’s just their counterparts on the Democrat side happened to just outpace them,” said one GOP strategist. “Republicans need to remain focused on making sure that we match the base enthusiasm out there.”
The Republican National Committee, coupled with President Trump’s campaign and associated fundraising committees, raised a record-breaking $125 million in the most recent fundraising period and finished last quarter with $158 million on hand.
“The president’s record of accomplishment is generating tremendous enthusiasm and the Democrats’ reckless, illegitimate, partisan impeachment farce has his supporters even more fired up,” said Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale. “The campaign and our partnership with the RNC have never been stronger.”
Republicans are eyeing at least several pickups of their own and are bullish on defeating Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama and Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan.
In Michigan, Republican John James outraised Mr. Peters $3 million to $2.5 million, though Mr. Peters’ $6.3 million war chest was larger than Mr. James’ $3.8 million.
Recent surveys have shown Mr. Peters and Mr. James neck-and-neck in a state that will be critical to the president’s reelection chances next year. The Cook Political Report on Friday moved the race from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
Mr. James’ strong third quarter “shows that Michiganders are excited to see a bit of light and compassion infused into this very dark and divisive political environment,” the Republican candidate said. “Action and authenticity are resonating.”
Mr. Jacobson predicted that no House or Senate candidate with even a modest chance of winning will lack for resources next year.
“But their fates will depend much more on how voters respond to the top of the ticket than to local campaign resources,” he said. “Ticket splitting and split outcomes have become quite rare.”
“If recent elections are the guide, the competitive Senate races will attract as much outside ’independent’ spending as candidate contributions, and these crucial numbers will not be known until relatively late in the election year,” he said.
As Mr. Parscale alluded to, one wild card is the effect House Democrats’ impeachment push could have on both fundraising and energy on both sides heading into next year’s elections.
The Republican strategist said impeachment is “certainly a base motivator” for both sides.
“There’s a segment of the Republican electorate [and a] segment of the Democratic electorate that are very, very passionate about this issue and willing to contribute to express their views,” the strategist said.
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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