Inside the Beltway: Moody Analytics: Trump wins in 2020

NEWS AND OPINION:

Numbers and data from Moody Analytics based on three different economic models now predict a bodacious win for President Trump in 2020.

“Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race. Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count,” writes CNBC finance editor Jeff Cox in his analysis of the Moody prediction.

That prediction also reveals a U.S. map graphic which has a lot of strategic bright red on it. The prediction also finds Mr. Trump winning in 35 states, including such key locales as Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote. It’s about turnout,” observes Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

It’s all about pocketbooks too. When the organization measured how people feel about their personal finances and applied their findings, things were very rosy indeed. In that particular scenario, Mr. Trump would win 351 electoral votes to the generic Democratic candidate’s 187 votes.

“Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term. The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once,” CNBC’s Mr. Cox explains.

POWERFUL GRASSROOTS

A word to the many critics of who complain about “big money” in elections: President Trump’s campaign raised $125.7 million in the third quarter of the year, with a total of $158 million cash on hand.

The campaign also reports that there were 1,056,126 individual donations received this quarter — of which 98% were $200 or less. The average donation, they say, was $44.50.

BETO’S FUTURE

One talk show host has an apt forecast for the future of Democratic presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke following his performance in the fourth Democratic presidential debate on Tuesday night.

“I don’t know what Beto’s doing other than running for MSNBC host. Coming up, I’m sure he’ll get a good hour,” predicts Meghan McCain, a host on ABC’s “The View.”

There could be something to that. Mr. O’Rourke has a huge cache of personal videos on his own YouTube channel, and also made his mark earlier this year by livestreaming his visit to a dentist, an encounter that went on for over three minutes and included a discussion about immigration policy and life on the southern U.S. border with his hygienist.

THE WILE E. COYOTE STRATEGY

There are some who believe that the impeachment “inquiry” is a circus. And there are other who say it’s a cartoon.

“Democrats have become the party of Wile E. Coyote — super genius. If you are a member of Generation X or older, you undoubtedly remember the Warner Brothers cartoons featuring a hapless coyote, chasing a road runner who always outpaces him. Today, we’re seeing this scenario play out in real life, in the endless and absurd pursuit of President Trump by the Democrats and their dedicated supporters in the media,” writes Townhall columnist Mike LaChance.

“This comparison goes far beyond casual observation. In these cartoons, the methods the coyote uses in his attempts to catch the road runner become more and more ridiculous, to the point where it is no longer clear how the scheme will even advance the ultimate goal of catching the road runner,” he continues.

“In the same way, Democrats and their allies in media continually raise the bar, never pausing to consider the appearance of their approach. Every time they think they can finally ’get’ Trump, they end up at the bottom of a canyon with a massive boulder directly overhead,” the columnist notes.

“Like Wile E. Coyote, Democrats and the media will continue to create more elaborate schemes which will serve only to showcase their fall off a cliff. The coyote is a cartoon character. His ludicrous stupidity is meant to make us laugh. What is their excuse?” he asks.

DEMOCRATIC DEBATES, ’TOXIC CULTURE’

A feminist advocacy group in now demanding that the Democratic National Committee cancel the next presidential debate, to be hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post on Nov. 20.

UltraViolet Action, an outspoken women’s advocacy group with 1.2 million members, is troubled by the “toxic culture” at NBC following new revelations of sexual misconduct at the network revealed in a new book by investigative journalist Ronan Farrow.

“The DNC needs to make it clear that they support survivors of sexual abuse and cancel the upcoming 2020 Democratic presidential primary debate on MSNBC until Comcast and NBC News take clear steps to clean up the toxic culture that exists across their networks,” says Shaunna Thomas, founder of the organization.

“Clean house and do an independent investigation,” she advised the broadcasters in a follow-up tweet.

“These initial reports demonstrate that NBC’s current leadership is either unable or unwilling to take appropriate steps to combat the culture of sexual abuse at the networks. These are problems that can only be solved by significant structural and cultural changes at MSNBC, NBC News, and its parent company, Comcast,” Ms. Thomas said.

“The DNC must stand with survivors and pull the upcoming Democratic presidential primary debate from MSNBC until Comcast takes clear steps to clean house at NBC News,” she added.

So far, there has been no reaction from either the DNC, the TV network or the Post.

POLL DU JOUR

• 87% of Americans have some form of health insurance; 94% of Republicans, 82% of independents and 91% of Democrats agree.

• 76% overall say they like their health coverage; 78% of Republicans, 75% of independents and 77% of Democrats agree.

• 53% get their coverage from their employer or union; 54% of Republicans, 55% of independents and 48% of Democrats agree.

• 25% overall rely on Medicare; 28% of Republicans, 20% of independents and 28% of Democrats agree.

• 6% self-insure with an insurance company; 5% of Republicans, 7% of independents and 5% of Democrats agree.

• 4% are on Obamacare; 1% of Republicans, 5% of independents and 5% of Democrats agree.

Source: A CBS News poll of 1,292 U.S. adults conducted Sept. 26-Oct. 2 and released Tuesday.

• Kindly follow Jennifer Harper on Twitter @HarperBulletin