Venezuela at a crossroads

OPINION:

The morning of May Day finds Venezuela, or what is left of it, at a crossroads; President Juan Guaido and popular leader Leopoldo Lopez are in the midst of a bold effort to end the dictatorship of usurper Nicolas Maduro.

Rumors swirl that their original plan had been to move on Friday, but that Mr. Maduro, alerted to the plan, was about to kill the main leaders of the opposition, causing their plans to launch several days early — on April 30, forces loyal to Mr. Guaido took charge of La Carlota Airbase in Caracas Venezuela. They quickly moved to free imprisoned opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez from his kidnappers (the usurper and his apologists referred to their hostage as being under “house arrest”) and called for massive public demonstrations, which followed, echoed by another large gathering of exiled Guaido loyalists at the Colombian side of the border with Venezuela, who turned out in solidarity.

Mr. Guaido has called for massive May Day demonstrations for an end to the regime, while Mr. Guaido contends that Mr. Maduro no longer enjoys the backing of the armed forces. Meanwhile, Leopoldo Lopez spent several hours visiting the Chilean embassy, where several pro-democracy activists who have been granted asylum continue the campaign to dislodge Mr. Maduro.

Nicolas Maduro, the Cuban government’s favorite puppet, has culled most men and women of character from the ranks of the armed forces, making it hard to find a critical mass of loyalists to democracy in the armed forces. However, chronic hunger and disease mean that there are also few Maduro loyalists — the armed forces may be drifting out of Mr. Maduro’s column more due to exhaustion than from loyalty to any higher ideals.

Tomorrow will tell how successful the current effort to expel Mr. Maduro will be — Mr. Guaido’s call for massive May Day anti-Maduro demonstrations coupled with calls for the dictator to leave may work. On the other hand, Mr. Maduro will continue his standard operating procedure: Kill, starve and intimidate anyone who dares oppose him while shutting down radio stations and internet conduits that might report his crimes to the world.

The key is whether the armed forces are willing to stay behind him. If they do, the Cuban military intervention in Venezuela will have been a success, and Venezuela will only escape from slavery with the help of foreign military intervention on behalf of freedom to counteract the foreign intervention from Cuba and elsewhere — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke Tuesday of Russian efforts — in support of Mr. Maduro’s continued tyranny. If the armed forces side with the people, there is hope for a quick end to Mr. Maduro, and a slow climb for Venezuela out of the deep pit of poverty in which Mr. Maduro and Mr. Chavez have mired the country.

Foreign reaction has thus far been predictable — the Lima group, the European Union, the United States, OAS head Luis Amalgro and various heads of democratic states spoke out in favor of a speedy exit for Nicolas Maduro, and the peaceful assumption of power by Juan Guaido. On the other side, Turkish dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke out in support of Mr. Maduro, as did Cuban dictator Miguel Diaz-Canel, Bolivian strong man Evo Morales, and various lesser trucklers and lackeys. The usurper can still count on support from illiberal governments such as Iran and Cuba, and it has the allegiance of an unknown fraction of the military. It seems unlikely he will leave peacefully when he can continue to rule violently, as he has done up until now, but if the armed forces abandon him to justice, his exit could be very swift.

During the Maduro regime, and the misrule of his predecessor Hugo Chavez, millions of Venezuelans have left their country, while it is estimated that another 300,000 Venezuelans have died of “their” government. Today many of those remaining in the country live in poverty, formerly eradicated diseases such as typhus have returned, and millions starve. If Mr. Maduro’s snipers don’t manage to kill regime critics at public demonstrations, hunger and disease will do the same work, more slowly, if he is allowed to remain in power.

Here in the United States, and in the rest of the free world, we should care about the ongoing tragedy and violence inflicted on Venezuela by each additional day the usurper remains in power. We should care because it affects our brethren. We should also care because we have strong pragmatic interests in the outcome. The regime headed by Mr. Diaz-Canel in Cuba, is but a minor power, and yet the totalitarian regime in Cuba managed to convert itself into a serious threat to peace during the 1962 missile crisis, and it continues today to be a scourge to peace in the region. Let’s not find out how little we like Soviet bombers in Caracas, or the Chinese navy stationed in Maracaibo, a day’s sailing from the Panama Canal.

There is a second pragmatic concern as well — the flood of refugees leaving Venezuela pose a serious humanitarian challenge to that enslaved country’s neighbors, and the longer Mr. Maduro governs, the worse the situation will become, and the more severe and extensive the exodus of Venezuelans. Today’s Venezuelan refugees seek, not a better life, but simply survival, something they can no longer be sure of in a homeland Mr. Maduro seems determined to convert into the world’s largest open-air dungeon.

Let us hope that these demonstrations bring the armed forces into line with the popular will, and that the military brings the usurper Maduro to justice, and makes way for the democratic process. If the armed forces continue at the beck and call of Mr. Maduro, the demonstrations will fail, and a peaceful solution to the ongoing disaster will slip from the grasp of the Venezuelan people. The status quo is violent, so even inaction means violence prevails in Venezuela, while Mr. Maduro will never be persuaded to leave without force. Abraham Lincoln’s insight about coexisting with evil generalizes to our context: Our world divided against itself cannot stand, the community of nations cannot endure permanently half-slave and half-free.

Cuba has militarily intervened to prop up the Maduro dictatorship. If the Venezuelan armed forces abandon the people tomorrow, it will be time for us to actively help the Venezuelans free themselves from the chains of hunger and violence in which Nicolas Maduro and the Cubans have shackled them.

• John Londregan is professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University.