OPINION:
The headlines read: Biden leads Democratic field; they should read: Biden can’t win. When it comes to the 2020 Democratic primary, ideology beats notoriety — handily. Despite their establishment’s fervent desire, the party is now left and it has left former Vice President Biden behind.
The latest Morning Consult poll (released 3/12) tells the story, but any other poll would tell the same. At 31 percent, Mr. Biden leads the field with a 4-point margin over Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Seemingly, this should offer Mr. Biden and his supporters some comfort. Mr. Sanders was 2016’s runner-up and liberal darling. This could make him today’s heir apparent.
With Mr. Biden having been out of office for three years, being ahead by four points could seem not too shabby. What’s more, the next nearest after Mr. Sanders — Sen. Kamala Harris of California — is only at 10 percent, just one-third of Mr. Biden’s total.
On the surface, this would look like a two-horse race, should Mr. Biden jump in. However, you do not need to look below the surface to see this is not true — you just have to look at the rest of it.
With Mr. Biden included, Morning Consult logged results for 16 candidates. While pollsters asked respondents to pick the candidate they most leaned toward, if they were unsure. As a result, “someone else” managed only 3 percent. The point is: Among the Democrats’ current Baskin Robbins field, most can find a flavor. And for most it’s not Biden Vanilla.
Most telling of all is that the rest of the field is running to the left of Mr. Biden. This despite him having been vice president in America’s most liberal administration. Some of the Obama patina should have rubbed off on him. Be assured, his opponents will rub it off him — if Mr. Obama is still considered left enough for today’s Democrats to leave him with one.
So Mr. Biden is holding all Democrats’ moderates and establishment. And no one else is fighting him for it. He has it all to himself, plus the Obama patina, plus his high public profile. And he has just 31 percent — less than one-third of Democrats. That’s it.
Yes, the large field dilutes support. It did for Republicans in 2016, too. Mr. Trump went on to gradually consolidate it. However, Mr. Trump was doing so from essentially the same side of the ideological spectrum. Mr. Biden will not be.
Why would supporters of left candidates — i.e., everyone else — go right as their favorite drops out? Will Beto’s go to Biden? No, they will stay on their side of the ideological divide, just choose another perch. Someone will begin consolidating the left’s support, but it will not be Joe Biden.
But couldn’t Mr. Biden win many primaries, even if only by a little bit? Yes, he could win some, but he will not win many delegates doing so. Democrats award their delegates proportionally, not on a winner-take-all basis. This is why Mr. Sanders was able to stick around so long in 2016.
The difference for delegates from 2016 is one that will not help Mr. Biden. Unlike last time, super delegates — the unelected free agents from the party establishment — who overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton and guaranteed her the nomination, will not be able to help Mr. Biden.
Mr. Biden is virtually as big now as he ever will be. Sure, a minor bump may come with a formal announcement, but it will not overcome the major divide separating the party’s establishment from the party itself.
Mr. Biden’s opponents will quickly whittle away, too. He had a long Senate career representing moderate Delaware. Positions once Democrat mainstream will seem — and assuredly made to look — reactionary now.
Should he choose to run, Mr. Biden’s candidacy will serve as a Democratic renaissance festival. It will be a curiosity of what was, but no longer is. It will last only a few weeks. It will attract some who actively want to participate, but most will be transient visitors who will return to their dwellings of today, and think how grateful they are to not live in that past.
The fact is: A roast turkey leg would have a better chance at the joust than Mr. Biden will in 2020’s Democratic presidential primary.
• J.T. Young served in the Office of Management and Budget and at the Treasury Department.
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