BERLIN — The images are unnerving in a country that has grown used to her rock-solid leadership for nearly a decade and a half.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s staff has been busy reassuring voters that the longtime leader remains healthy and will serve out her term despite a string of public appearances in which she starts shaking and trembling. Germany is not a country where leaders share intimate details about the state of their health, but this is a special case.
“She’s in good health,” chancellery chief Helge Braun insisted of Ms. Merkel, who turned 65 last week. “She ran to remain for four years in office, and the tasks we face make it necessary to complete her term,” which ends in 2021.
Speculation about the chancellor’s future has reached fever pitch in Berlin and pushed forward a discussion about the viability of her coalition government with the country’s center-left Social Democrats, known as the SPD.
Her health concerns are also forcing Germans to think hard about life after Ms. Merkel, a figure so reassuring that she is often referred to as “Mutti,” the German equivalent of “Mommy.”
Ms. Merkel was at it again last week: trying to reassure Germans that her episodes of shaking should not be a cause of concern and noting that she has agreed to step down when her term ends.
“I have said that 2021 will be the end of my political work, and I hope that there is a life after that, and I would like to lead it in good health,” she told reporters.
The SPD’s poor showing in May’s European parliamentary elections — the party came in third after the Greens — could mean that it will pull out of a coalition with Ms. Merkel’s long-dominant center-right Christian Democrats (CDU). That would trigger elections and speed Ms. Merkel’s departure from the center of German politics.
Polls are reflecting deep uncertainty among everyday Germans.
“Angst is a stereotypical German quality, and in this case, it is somewhat understandable,” Frank Sportolari, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Germany, told The Washington Times. “Chancellor Merkel has led the country for 14 years now, which is truly different than the U.S. system and also unusual in Europe, but at the same time a sign of the stability and predictability of recent German politics.”
Complicating the picture is what is widely seen as a rocky rollout for Ms. Merkel’s designated successor, longtime CDU official Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. After a string of gaffes and missteps by “AKK” and losses in May’s EU parliamentary vote, Ms. Merkel was forced to go public to squelch rumors that she was rethinking her choice.
Mr. Sportolari said Ms. Merkel’s calmness, objectivity and pragmatism have helped anchor an international order rocked by the presidential election of Donald Trump, the rise of populist movements in Germany and across Europe, and Britain’s looming exit from the European Union. But that seems set to change.
“The political landscape is undergoing major upheaval, and it is unclear what the next coalition will look like,” he said. “With populist parties gaining influence, there is real cause for concern.”
Pessimistic populace
Part of this uncertainty is fueled by pessimism about the country’s economic future. According to a study by INSM, Germans feel overworked: 86% say they are struggling to combine family and work responsibilities.
Moreover, 36% say they are pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects in five years. Among millennial and Generation Z Germans, the numbers are dismal. Just 13% and 14%, respectively, say they are optimistic about the future, according to a study by Deloitte.
Although business leaders say they appreciate Ms. Merkel’s support for efforts such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a wide-ranging free trade deal with the United States, they lament that she made little material progress advancing the trans-Atlantic relationship and has yet to forge a productive working relationship with the unpredictable Mr. Trump.
Ms. Merkel’s stolidity and longevity may have postponed a needed shake-up of the German model, many say.
“Depending on what coalition is formed after the next elections, an incoming chancellor should actually take the opportunity to positively disrupt trade policy and forcefully address the many contentious issues we face,” Mr. Sportolari said.
Business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic want the next German chancellor to show more leadership within the EU in creating a consensus on major issues such as education and migration.
As the largest economy in Europe and one of the world’s largest exporters, they think Germany should step up in a way that it has been reluctant to do for reasons dating back to the world wars of the 20th century. Mr. Trump has made that point to Ms. Merkel on several occasions in international forums.
Ms. Merkel’s successor will find it just as difficult to meet American demands that it increase military spending. The chancellor’s Cabinet pledged this year to boost military spending to 1.5% of economic output by 2025, but that still falls short of Mr. Trump’s demand that NATO allies increase spending to 2% of gross domestic product to bring them into alignment with an agreement signed in 2014.
Some 60% of Germans say they oppose increasing the country’s defense spending above 1.5% of GDP, even though Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer said this week that she will push hard for Germany to reach the 2% spending level.
As the political parties prepare to move toward the post-Merkel era, German voters are saying not so fast. Despite widespread coverage of the chancellor’s shaking, 59% of Germans said her health is her business and another 7% said they didn’t have an opinion.
That could mean that despite calls in political Berlin for an end to the Merkel era, Germans across the country want their Frau Kanzlerin to remain in office a bit longer.
Meanwhile, German business leaders worry that the government isn’t doing enough to prepare for the post-Merkel era.
“The coalition is getting a bit more critical on each other,” said Tino Duttine, a partner with Norton Rose Fulbright, an international law firm in Frankfurt who works with many industry leaders. “Some fear the Social Democrats and Greens will aim to win power and increase social spending. It may be the only way they can differentiate themselves from the conservatives, as they are no longer really ’conservative’ in many aspects.”
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