OPINION:
Venezuela’s socialist nightmare continues. Its economy is in shambles. Hyperinflation has made its currency virtually worthless. All of life’s necessities — food, medicine and even toilet paper — are scarce for all except the top officials of the regime of socialist dictator Nicolas Maduro. More than a tenth of Venezuela’s population — more than 3 million people — have fled to neighboring countries.
Mr. Maduro “won” a sham election in 2018 that featured arrest of his opponents and systemic fraud. His regime, and the roughly 1,000 flag-rank military officers who keep it in power, are sustained by oil exports and drug smuggling. In May 2018, the U.S. Treasury Department issued sanctions against Diosdado Cabello, an official of Mr. Maduro’s Socialist Party, accusing him of seizing drugs from smaller criminal operations, combining them and shipping them off from a government-controlled airport. That cannot be done without the connivance of the Venezuelan military.
On Jan. 23, Venezuela’s National Assembly, led by Juan Guaido, concluded on the basis of the fraudulent election that Mr. Maduro’s re-election was illegitimate. Pursuant to the Venezuelan constitution, it declared Mr. Guaido acting president.
On the eve of the National Assembly’s action, Vice President Mike Pence spoke to Mr. Guaido and assured him of American support. Almost immediately after the National Assembly’s action, President Trump recognized Mr. Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate president. Canada and the major South American nations followed Mr. Trump’s lead. Several EU nations may soon join them.
We can yearn for the time when toppling a South American dictator was just 9-to-5 stuff for the CIA, but those days are long gone. Not only does the CIA lack that ability but the usual suspects among our adversaries are working hard to ensure that Mr. Maduro remains in power.
About 400 Russian mercenaries — reportedly members of the “Wagner group” that fought alongside Russian forces in Syria and Ukraine — were flown from Cuba about 10 days ago to provide Mr. Maduro’s personal security.
Russian and Chinese military support for Mr. Maduro — and his late and unlamented predecessor, Hugo Chavez — is not new. In a replay of a 2008 demonstration, two Russian Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers and other aircraft visited Venezuela in December 2018 in a show of Russian military support for Mr. Maduro.
Mr. Maduro went to Beijing last year to beg Chinese President Xi Jinping for economic help. China’s economic assistance only comes at the price of its military establishing a commensurate presence in a nation.
These interventions by Russia and China clearly violate the Monroe Doctrine barring foreign intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Their moves are calculated to impose influence in a manner that avoids U.S. military action to counter them. In that they are succeeding.
Russia and China fear the loss of their large financial investments if Mr. Maduro is forced out of office. That could be a side benefit to us if he is ousted. Unfortunately, Russian and Cuban military presence in Venezuela may keep Mr. Maduro in power indefinitely.
Those nations don’t yet have free rein in Venezuela. National Security Adviser John Bolton has asked the Venezuelan military to join Mr. Guaido and warned against any harm to him or to U.S. diplomats in Venezuela.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced major economic sanctions against Mr. Maduro’s regime on Jan. 28. These sanctions prevent U.S. businesses from doing business with the Venezuelan government-controlled oil company, PdVSA, and block transfer of oil and gasoline sale proceeds to the regime, which amount to about $7 billion U.S.-based assets and another $11 billion expected this year.
The State Department has said Mr. Guaido has the right to control those funds. But the Maduro-controlled Venezuelan Supreme Court froze Mr. Guaido’s financial assets and barred him from leaving the country in a sign of Mr. Maduro’s growing desperation. Mr. Guaido could be arrested — or assassinated — by the Maduro regime.
Support for Mr. Guaido is in our interest — despite the fact that he, too, is a socialist — because by opposing Mr. Maduro he implicitly opposes Mr. Maduro’s Russian, Cuban and Chinese supporters. Moreover, Mr. Guaido’s is an outspoken proponent of restoring democracy to Venezuela.
Mr. Guaido wants to import food and medical supplies to aid his people but the Maduro regime will either block such shipments or seize them for its own benefit.
Mr. Guaido’s presidency could be the vehicle by which Russian and Cuban forces, and the other malign foreign actors present in Venezuela, could be expelled. The key will be Mr. Guaido’s ability to persuade his nation’s military to shift its allegiance from Mr. Maduro to him.
Though widespread demonstrations against his regime grow daily, Mr. Maduro’s greatest fear is a split in the military’s loyalty. Mr. Guaido is making appeals to Venezuela’s soldiery — below the ranks of the officers tied to Mr. Maduro’s narcocracy — in hope that they will join him and cause a peaceful ouster of Mr. Maduro’s regime.
Mr. Guaido’s efforts may take more time than Russia, Cuba and Mr. Maduro will allow. We need to help him gain speed.
Mr. Trump should sign a secret presidential determination authorizing covert actions assisting dissidents in the Venezuelan military and Mr. Guaido. That, and continuing strong sanctions, are our best bet to help remove Mr. Maduro and thwart Russia’s and China’s ambitions in Venezuela.
• Jed Babbin, a deputy undersecretary of Defense in the George H.W. Bush administration, is the author of “In the Words of Our Enemies.”
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