BANGKOK — After nearly five years in power, Thailand’s military regime has finally set a date for national elections, giving opponents to Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha barely two months to organize before the March 24 poll. Analysts and activists warn that instability and uncertainty will be the likely results for a longtime U.S. ally in the region no matter who wins.
Machiavellian and increasingly authoritarian, Mr. Prayuth orchestrated the drafting of a controversial constitution after seizing power in 2014 enabling him to hold on to power either through the ballot box or as an unelected leader.
Whichever route he chooses, Mr. Prayuth will need support from a majority of the 750 House and Senate members to keep his post as prime minister.
With the revamped constitution, Mr. Prayuth can count on the junta-appointed 250-seat Senate to provide a significant boost. He will need the support of just 126 members in the House to claim another term.
Divisions among opposition parties will likely boost the prime minister’s cause. Several parties would likely need to form a coalition to block Mr. Prayuth’s candidacy.
Even in victory, an opposition prime minister would face major challenges governing alongside the junta-appointed Senate, analysts said.
Campaigning toward the March 24 polls is also problematic under the government’s limits on free speech and normal political activity.
Throughout 2018, Mr. Prayuth mixed repression — notably a ban on major political activity — with populist measures designed to build up his electoral base before announcing an election. Several leading figures from other political parties defected to the prime minister’s side in an apparent bid to be on the winner’s side.
“The election [campaign] is not fair. Prayuth has all the advantages, including full authoritative power and the support from the army and civil servants,” democracy activist Kittithat Sumalnop said in an interview. Mr. Kittithat was seized on a sidewalk by security forces and detained in 2014 for silently reading George Orwell’s “1984” in public.
Thailand’s “constitutional and election framework … [are] obviously designed to ensure continued military leadership,” Benjamin Zawacki, Southeast Asia analyst and author of “Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the U.S. and a Rising China,” said in an interview.
A need to change course
Even if the prime minister is able to stay on, “Prayuth won’t have the full power as the junta head and will have to deal with more opposition,” Mr. Kittithat said.
Even an electoral “win” could cut into the prime minister’s power, James Ockey, a political analyst at the University of Canterbury, wrote this week on EastAsiaForum.org.
“If Prayuth does return, especially in such a coalition, he will need to employ a very different set of skills to those on which his rule has depended over the past 4½ years,” Mr. Ockey said.
“For the first time, he will face an opposition in parliament and lead a party whose members have little in common besides a desire for office. In such an environment, Prayuth may well find a greater need for consultation and participation than he anticipates, as well as other skills he has yet to demonstrate.”
President Trump has pursued closer ties with Bangkok after the often chilly relations between Mr. Prayuth and the Obama administration. Mr. Trump hosted Mr. Prayuth in the Oval Office in 2017.
The U.S. Embassy said last week that it welcomed the setting of an election date. “We look forward to a result that reflects open debate and the will of the Thai people,” it said in a statement.
Mr. Prayuth took power in a May 2014 coup when he was army chief by ousting a civilian government mired in corruption scandals. He will try to extend his term after the new Palang Pracharath Party named him this week as one of the prime ministerial candidates.
Despite tensions in the region, concerns about China’s growing influence and a long-simmering insurgency in the country’s Muslim-majority southern regions, political observers expected the economy and corruption concerns to dominate the election debate. Even with Mr. Trump’s outreach to the prime minister, anti-American attitudes are not particularly prevalent.
“I have detected no anti-U.S. candidate or party,” former Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon, now an analyst with the Rand Corp., said in an interview.
Arnaud Dubus, author of several books on Thai politics, said the China question could get an airing.
“We notice a significant drift towards China in political, military and economical terms under the junta,” said Mr. Dubus. “A government under a civilian prime minister would very likely try to rebalance the relationships with the U.S. and China.”
The date may be settled, but it leaves major questions hanging over the Thai political landscape, political analyst Tom Kruesopon said in an interview.
“Can the winning party govern and maintain the current nonviolent situation?” he asked. “And will the army — if it loses — really let go of power?”
The leading opposition Pheu Thai Party will reportedly name three prime ministerial candidates: Sudarat Keyuraphan, Chadchart Sittipunt and Viroj Pao-in.
Pheu Thai, however, is perceived to be under the influence of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, one of the country’s richest corporate executives who has lived in self-imposed exile when he was ousted by a 2006 military coup. His younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, restored civilian rule in 2011 only to be ousted in 2014 by a second coup engineered by Mr. Prayuth.
The wealthy siblings are international fugitives dodging prison sentences and court cases for corruption committed during their administrations, but they are still popular.
The opposition Democrat Party, trailing far behind Pheu Thais, is keeping its military-friendly former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva as its sole prime ministerial candidate. Should Pheu Thai prevent the pro-government parties led by the Phalang Pracharat party from gaining a parliamentary majority, the Democrats could be in a position to play kingmaker.
Although the election will be in late March, the government said it will wait until May 9 to announce the results, reportedly to avoid postelection turbulence before King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s three-day coronation celebration starting May 4. A new government should be installed by the middle of the year.
Mr. Prayuth kept the country guessing for much of 2018 over when and whether he would allow national elections.
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