OPINION:
Donald Trump, the first president who talks as a common man and serves without prior official experience, is not allowed to govern normally. Despite winning 30 states in 2016, he has had to embrace extraordinary tactics to move his agenda over opposition in both political parties. From the elimination of the filibuster for his Supreme Court confirmations to the budget reconciliation technique required to pass his tax cuts, President Trump faces the choice of seeing his campaign promises die or have a chance to succeed only on account of creative and labored circumvention, usually on the rails of his Twitter handle.
Mr. Trump’s $6 billion wall on the southern border, recently envisioned as a scale-up of Barack and Michelle Obamas’ Kalorama enclosure (“same thing, slightly larger version!”), is a tangible promise he had made since coming down the escalator at Trump Tower. No matter how much revenue the U.S. government might see from its revised trade deal with Mexico, its funding must be appropriated by Congress.
Until recently, Mr. Trump largely deferred to Republican congressional leadership on spending, which yielded nothing for a wall. With Paul Ryan gone and the House GOP coming off a midterm drubbing, that deference is gone. Mr. Trump has become the sole negotiator with the new House Democrats and refused to sign any more appropriations bills without wall money.
Seventy-four percent of discretionary federal funding had already been appropriated through the end of fiscal 2019 when the government entered a partial shutdown before the holidays. Mr. Trump has ordered furloughed employees previously considered nonessential — like IRS refund processors — to stay on the job. He also recently signed a law to ensure furloughed workers’ back pay upon funding. Instead of showboating the shutdown like President Obama, he has sought to maintain a functioning federal government while pressing Congress to improve its spending bill.
Mr. Trump can’t govern normally, but he might be normalizing the government shutdown. Previously, Democrats prevailed in such spending fights no matter which end of Pennsylvania Avenue they controlled. A government shutdown became a national emergency standing in the path of them getting their way. It was a reliable tactic by Democrats to force spending projects or spare budget cuts.
This president may turn that tactic on its head. If his voter coalition sticks out an extended shutdown he may be able to get Democrats to reach a breaking point and fund at least part of his wall. The pinch from the lapse in appropriations is felt most sharply by Washington and Wall Street — the twin pillars of the Democratic Party. There may come a point, maybe it’s this month or maybe during March Madness, that a convergence of organized labor and investment bank donor pressure prompts Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to make a deal. In the meantime the country is assured transfer payments, military spending, tax refunds, and the Mueller investigation.
So far only a handful of congressional Republicans are in open opposition to Mr. Trump’s insistence on the wall as part of more government funding. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has conceded having any national voice outside of judicial confirmations. The newly reconfigured House Republican leadership lacks policy chops. Mr. Trump is fighting the toughest legislative battle of his 24-month presidency without a formidable band of lieutenants on Capitol Hill. But stretching back to the darkest days of the campaign, he’s often risen to the occasion when having to go at it alone.
Legal scholar and former Obama regulatory czar Cass Sunstein calls Mr. Trump a “norm entrepreneur.” In Mr. Trump’s way of moving norms, he reduces voters’ inhibitions on expressing latent political preferences. A particular perception of an idea or event like a government shutdown — could be replaced if Mr. Trump were to reset its applicable norms. A popular but previously concealed opinion would emerge as the new perception. When this happens, Mr. Sunstein argues, it is almost always a surprise.
The ultimate surprise so far was Mr. Trump’s election, followed by his ability to garner steady presidential approval ratings without changing his manner from the campaign. In his busted Cabinet selections and deference to fellow Republicans in Congress, Donald Trump in his first two years displayed plenty of good faith to old norms. The battle over the wall shows that fulfilling his campaign promises requires he continue to succeed as a norm entrepreneur.
• Rich Danker was until recently a senior political appointee in the Trump administration.
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