Maryland Republicans brace for tough 2019 legislative session

ANNAPOLIS | After failing last year to break up the Democratic supermajorities in the Maryland House and Senate, Republicans are bracing for a potentially tough 2019 legislative session — while also making clear that they’re not content to sit on their hands.

The party gets to celebrate Gov. Larry Hogan’s second swearing-in Wednesday before getting back to work, which will include trying to block Democratic efforts to increase the minimum wage and further cement abortion rights in the state.

House Minority Leader Nicholaus R. Kipke said the GOP is prepared to hold the line on issues like taxes, and he hopes Mr. Hogan’s presence will provide a moderating influence.

“We will fight hard. We will offer clear policy alternatives,” said Mr. Kipke, Anne Arundel Republican. “But in the end, we don’t have the numbers to stop bad bills from passing. But Maryland is fortunate to have a Republican governor who can temper the leftist leaning of the legislature.”

Mr. Hogan cruised to re-election in 2018, and on Wednesday will officially become the first Republican in six decades to serve a second consecutive term as governor of Maryland.

At the same time, Democrats netted eight seats in the state House and limited their losses in the Senate to a single seat last year — blocking the GOP drive to deny Democrats a veto-proof majority in at least one of the chambers.

“There’s a more progressive legislature, no doubt,” said Senate Minority Leader J.B. Jennings, Baltimore County Republican. “It’s going to be a little more partisan than it has been in years prior.”

He acknowledged that members will need to be “more on our game” and “more focused” on local issues and constituent concerns, but said the GOP is going to try to pick its spots when it can, like on redistricting and Second Amendment issues.

“We aren’t going to sit here and play defense every day,” Mr. Jennings said.

Still, recent history has shown that when Democratic leaders want to override a veto, they have the numbers to do so, said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

“Their majority in the Senate has shrunk by a seat, but it’s also a more liberal caucus than it was before,” Mr. Eberly said.

Delegate Neil Parrott said he’d like to work with Democrats on issues like transportation, but acknowledged that they’re likely emboldened after strengthening their House majority, calling the eight-seat loss for the GOP “very substantial.”

“They’ve got the numbers,” said Mr. Parrott, Washington Republican. “Clearly, the Maryland House of Delegates has shifted to the left.”

One of Democrats’ major pushes is to increase the state minimum wage from $10.10 per hour to $15, saying the move is intended to lift up people in poverty.

“Close to 600,000 hardworking people in our state deserve fair pay so they don’t have to decide between eating, paying rent or paying for child care,” said Delegate Diana Fennell, Prince George’s Democrat.

But Mr. Parrott pointed to estimates saying the change could cost the state close to 100,000 jobs, and said part of the GOP’s job this session will be to make the public aware of the potentially negative consequences of such Democratic priorities.

“That’s one of my goals — provide information to people,” he said.

Going forward, Republicans also acknowledge they have to figure out how to make significant dents in the Democratic majorities in the legislature so they don’t end up in the same position in the coming years.

Patrick O’Keefe, executive director of the state Republican Party, said the national political climate in 2018 served to boost turnout for both sides, though notably among Democrats, who were eager to register their displeasure with President Trump.

A higher-than-expected Democratic turnout was fine for someone like Mr. Hogan, who has enjoyed significant crossover appeal and has distanced himself from Mr. Trump. But it ended up hurting the GOP down-ballot in a state where registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans 2-to-1.

“I think the key for us is focusing on the issues,” Mr. O’Keefe said.

He said the party faces a “blue wave” every few cycles in which it loses seats, but Mr. Hogan’s presence puts the state party in a significantly better position now than it was after 2006, when voters ousted GOP Gov. Robert Ehrlich.

“Every bad year is better than the last bad year,” he said. “I think for us, a lot of it comes down to communication legislators do listen when their constituents reach out to them.”