OPINION:
China’s President Xi Jinping has made no secret of his desire to make China a true world-spanning superpower, but he is attempting implementation of that objective with a very strange strategy.
True world superpowers are relatively rare; the Roman Empire, Great Britain from Trafalgar to World War I, and the United States since the end of World War II all qualify. Each had three dominant characteristics. The first was that each possessed the world’s greatest economy in its time, the second was unchallenged control of the seas. Finally, each had a series of alliances and clients to help with the burden of maintaining international stability during their respective periods of international dominance.
With the possible exception of seeking economic supremacy, Mr. Xi’s approach to world spanning dominance is curious indeed. China has the potential for true superpower status, but so did Athens, Carthage, Imperial France and the former Soviet Union. Under Mr. Xi, China appears to be making several of the key mistakes that tripped up past imperial wannabes.
From an economic standpoint, conventional wisdom has it that China will economically overtake the United States in the 2030-2050 time frame depending on who is counting. But even here, China has several fissures that should cause Mr. Xi concern. A few years ago, “60 Minutes” did an investigative report on China’s potentially disastrous building bubble that revealed the construction of whole cities worth of housing which have yet to develop a market.
China’s banking system also shows weaknesses that are the natural result of its uncomfortable mix of a command economy tradition with a largely unregulated banking system. That, combined with an opaque legal system, has all of the elements that have created historical great depressions.
In addition, China’s run of nearly three decades of unprecedented growth has slowed dramatically of late. In many ways, China shows some of the signs that presaged Japan’s economic collapse of the 1990s. Chinese economic dominance is no sure thing.
From a naval perspective, China has been a traditional land power throughout its history, but this did not stop either Rome or the United States from becoming true superpowers by building great fleets to defeat naval threats from competitors. In fact, naval historian Andrew Lambert points out in his recent book “Seapower States” that Great Britain was the only voluntary sea power state to become an unchallenged superpower.
Rome and the United States resisted their natural continental instincts and built great navies out of perceived necessity. China has actually built an anti-navy, and is now attempting to give it power projection aspirations; this is a very hard thing to do as Germany in both World Wars and the Soviet Union in the Cold War found to their dismay.
It is very difficult to imagine China defeating the American fleet on the open ocean beyond the South China Sea or projecting a great army by naval means to a conflict in Africa or the Middle East in President Xi’s lifetime.
Perhaps the greatest impediment to Mr. Xi’s superpower aspiration is in the area of allies. Rome, Great Britain and America built great international security systems upon a series of alliances and client relationships. Although Rome is usually viewed as a conquering imperial construct, its glory was originally built on Italian alliances and the cultivation of overseas clients which allowed it to use military economy of force.
As military historian Edward Luttwak points out, Rome’s military and economic power began to decline once its emperors decided to go it alone from a security standpoint.
Mr. Xi has adopted the traditional Chinese view that the Middle Kingdom has two types of relationships, adversaries and tributaries. It bullies its neighbors in the South China Sea claiming that body of water to be a virtual Chinese lake.
Overseas, the Chinese Great Belt Road initiative is the anti-Marshall Plan. Its loans to potential partners are predatory, and its management of infrastructure building in Asia and Africa is virtually assured of making enemies of local populations. Athens, Carthage, Germany, Imperial Japan and the former Soviet Union failed to achieve true superpower status by treating allies and clients like subjects. China’s Xi seems to be reading from their play books.
None of this means that China cannot become a true superpower, but it will not likely happen under Mr. Xi. Although he has consolidated power in China to an extent not seen since Mao, Mr. Xi’s approach to the rest of the world is predatory. Making China great again may be delayed.
• Gary Anderson lectures on Alternative Analysis at George Washington University’s Elliott School of international Affairs.
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