- Monday, August 5, 2019

Just eight days after Boris Johnson received a resounding mandate from the Conservative membership to become prime minister, his party lost a special election and he is now clinging on to power with a parliamentary majority of just one MP.

The Brecon and Radnorshire seat in mid-Wales was taken from the Conservatives by a resurgent Liberal Democrat Party, with a little help from their friends. 

Using a tactical-voting strategy to secure a win for the European Union “Remainers,” the Welsh Nationalist Party (Plaid Cymru) and the Green Party chose not to put forward candidates, allowing Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) to narrowly win the seat from the Conservatives.

Another factor was the presence on the ballot paper of the Brexit Party, headed by Nigel Farage. Its votes weren’t anywhere near enough to win, but they did ensure that the Conservatives lost. 

The “Remain” supporting parties won because they worked together, whereas the “Leave” parties did not and they lost, even though they had the most votes between them. 

For the oldest political party in the world to team up with probably the newest and which is run by someone they consider to be their pain in the neck in-chief, is a big ask.

But the stakes have never been higher for them. Even with the help of 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs from Northern Ireland the prime minister now has to try to deliver Brexit with barely a majority at all. 

If the Conservatives lose another special election it could lead to a general election. That result would then be interpreted as a second Brexit referendum as Brexit is the biggest issue in British politics right now.

What is most puzzling about the Brecon and Radnorshire ballot is that the Tories chose to keep the previous MP, Chris Davies, as their candidate. The election was held because 19 percent of local voters signed a petition to have him removed after he was found guilty of making false expense claims.

With more than 10,000 registered voters opposing him, it is hard to see how the Tories ever stood a chance of winning. The choice of candidate would have been made before Boris Johnson was elected, and it is just part of the terrible hand that Theresa May has passed on to him. 

She left office with a round of applause and kind words, but her proposed withdrawal agreement with the EU could have broken up the United Kingdom. 

Mrs. May agreed to what’s been dubbed the “Irish backstop.” If no other arrangement is found, then the border between the North and South would stay open only if Northern Ireland remained tied to the EU’s single market and customs union, effectively separating it from the rest of post-Brexit U.K.

The EU probably calculated that the U.K. Parliament would never accept such a division, but it also knew that the May government was desperate for a deal. 

To avoid having different rules for Northern Ireland, the U.K. would also need to stay in the customs union and single market. This was rejected by “Leavers” as a “vassal state” option, but the EU hasn’t budged on the backstop requirement.

Mr. Johnson recently told the House of Commons “No country that values its independence, and indeed its self-respect could agree to a treaty which signed away its economic independence and self-government as this backstop does,” Although, that is what Mrs. May had proposed.

Whether or not the British government can find an agreement with the EU, by law the U.K. is set to leave on Oct. 31. Parliament is in recess until Sept. 3, so that just leaves 9 weeks of parliamentary time.

“Remain” MPs could try to change that law and they did manage to stop the previous leave-date of April 12. To prevent that, Mr. Johnson could try “proroguing” Parliament — effectively locking its doors until Oct. 31 — but that would face a legal challenge. 

Alternatively, the prime minister could call a snap election and hope for a more Brexit-friendly Parliament, but that would be risky. 

In the last two special elections, the division between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party allowed the “Remain” supporting MPs to win, so Mr. Johnson would have to work with the Brexit Party and their price is a no-deal exit, plus some MPs in Parliament.

A worse option for the “Remainers” would be to try to topple the government through a no-confidence vote because, even if that succeeded, the government could try to delay a new election until after the Oct. 31 date, so Britain would leave without a deal anyway.

If Mr. Johnson opts for a hastily thought through deal or delays Brexit, the Tories could face a wipe-out at the next election. The best chance of preventing that seems to be to hold out for a “no-deal exit.”

• Andrew Davies is a U.K.-based video producer and scriptwriter.

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