OPINION:
Not only can Joe Biden not win the Democratic nomination, he is already losing it. The misapprehension he is winning comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of the race. The 2020 Democratic contest is not one between Mr. Biden and another candidate, but one between Mr. Biden and “the field.” That “field” is “left” and pulling away from Mr. Biden.
According to Real Clear Politics’ average of national polling, prior to the first debate (6/6-25), Mr. Biden stood at 32 percent, Bernie Sanders at 16.9 percent, and Elizabeth Warren at 12.8 percent. Currently (8/9-25), Mr. Biden stands at 27.5 percent, Mr. Sanders at 16.7 percent and Ms. Warren at 16.2 percent. The general perception is Mr. Biden still holds a double-digit lead and is winning handily.
Seeing the race that way is to miss its true dynamic. Instead, look at the collective left — everyone else except Mr. Biden, Steve Bullock and Joe Donnelly. The collective establishment dropped from 33.2 percent to 28.7 percent; the collective left rose from 55 percent to 59.9 percent.
From this perspective, the takeaways are very different. The gap between Mr. Biden and the left has grown; he now trails by more than 2-1. Even with John Hickenlooper’s departure and the moderate field shrinking to three, there is little prospect of Mr. Biden gaining, because there is little there to gain.
The Democrats’ 2020 presidential primary contest is one of its vanishing establishment against its ascendant left. In reality, it is not a contest.
There is no establishment camp besides Mr. Biden. Currently, it comprises just three candidates totaling just 28.7 percent of support — barely 1 percent higher than Mr. Biden alone.
Even with Mr. Biden’s limited support, it is questionable how much exists for him and the establishment beyond a mistaken belief in his ability to beat Donald Trump. Mr. Biden’s and the establishment’s “electability” argument is further undermined by polling showing candidates from the left also doing well against Mr, Trump: Why should Democrats pick a candidate the majority clearly do not want, if they also do not need him?
As bad as Mr. Biden is doing, it will get worse quickly because the 2020 contest’s rule will further undercut his minority candidacy. Long gone are the days of winner-take-all primaries when Mr. Biden could have won all a contest’s delegates by winning the most votes.
Democrats today award their delegates proportionally. This means Mr. Biden could stay at his current level throughout the primaries, winning every one, and still finish with just 27.5 percent of the delegates. Of course, he will not, but even if should, it would be irrelevant to the outcome.
What instead will happen is that as the field shrinks, the left will coalesce around a shrinking group of their candidates. Already this is happening: Just Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders combined easily surpass Mr. Biden. However, this is small potatoes compared to what is coming.
Currently, there is another 27 percent of Democrats supporting other candidates on the left. As those candidates fall away, Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders (and any other survivors), will see their numbers grow, while Mr. Biden at best stays where he is. What is assured: They will not go to Mr. Biden. The evidence for this is clear: They are not now.
The left will keep growing and denying Mr. Biden — even should they not knock him out. If Mr. Biden survives to the end — because proportional awarding of delegates could allow him to do so too — he cannot expect any help at the convention.
A brokered convention is not out of the question, but a Biden nomination still is. Democratic super delegates, those establishment-dominated free agents who had assured Hillary Clinton of 2016’s nomination before a vote was cast, will not be allowed to vote on the first ballot. So, even if the left have not settled on a single candidate when the primaries end, they will still have time to come together in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Effectively, super delegates also will be blocked from voting for Mr. Biden on a later ballot too. Imagine the rebellion if the establishment candidate with less than the support of one-third of Democrats and ideologically out of step with the remaining two-thirds (and who also fails their identity-politics test by being old, white and male) was somehow awarded the nomination.
The Democrats are playing down their party’s split and the establishment media is playing along. Both are desperately trying to prop up Mr. Biden for two reasons: There is no establishment candidate besides Mr. Biden and, without an establishment, there is no nationally viable party. Simply: Democrats cannot win nationally as a liberal-only party.
Yet, consider the Democratic establishment’s prospects. In 2016, there was Hillary; she lost in arguably America’s biggest presidential upset. Four years later, there is Mr. Biden; he has the support of well less than one-third of Democrats. After 2020, there is no one; the rest of the establishment field is two other candidates collectively drawing 1 percent support.
Mr. Biden is already losing. The Democrats’ establishment is losing even more. And, the Democratic Party is poised to lose most of all.
• J.T. Young served in the Office of Management and Budget and at the Treasury Department.
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