BANGKOK — A vote designed to bring a measure of normalcy to Thai politics is producing only more confusion and division, as the country’s army chief is warning that a state of emergency will be declared if post-election violence degenerates into “civil war.”
The military-led government is meanwhile targeting a new, wildly popular, anti-army politician for “sedition” while the election officials say full results for the March 24 vote won’t be fully tabulated for another month.
In the first national election since junta leader Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha rewrote the constitution and installed a complex system to picking a new leader, officials are working their way through the returns amid allegations of manipulated ballots, “ghost voters” and what critics say is a bias against pro-democracy candidates.
The junta filed the sedition charge — punishable by nine years in jail — plus other cases against Future Forward party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, 40, on Saturday. The case dates back to 2015 when Mr. Thanathorn allegedly “provided assistance” to an anti-coup protest by reportedly giving walking protesters a ride in his car.
Mr. Thanathorn’s party came in third place in the election, not far behind the political faction backing Mr. Chan-ocha, fueled in part by a surge among younger Thai voters tired of the lack of democracy and opportunity.
The junta despises Mr. Thanathorn, a billionaire auto parts tycoon, because he has demanded that future coup leaders be punished and favors cuts to military spending and ending army conscription. He would shrink the U.S.-trained army from 330,000 troops to 170,000 and the number of generals from 1,600 to 400, while rewriting Mr. Prayuth’s 2017 constitution.
Mr. Thanathorn professes to be unconcerned about the charges and the pressure being put on his party.
“We believe in our innocence,” he told Thai reporters this week. “Nobody will be able to find us guilty. The party’s supporters can be assured about this.”
After ruling with near-absolute power, Mr. Prayuth permitted an election for the House of Representatives on March 24, expecting to decisively win another four-year term. Those 500 House seats will be confirmed May 9 when the 250-seat Senate, whose membership is picked by the government, is unveiled.
The delay will allow Thailand’s new king to be coronated during the first week of May without political disturbance. But that national celebration could prove only a temporary respite from a dangerous spiral of confrontation and threats of violence after March’s unexpectedly polarizing vote.
“’Democracy vs. dictatorship’ rhetoric is meant to divide the people who voted. Does this mean we want a civil war like in the past?” Army Chief Gen. Apirat Kongsompong warned over the weekend. “I can’t allow Thai people to fight in the streets and cause any unrest. If this [fighting] goes so big that they burn and they fight each other, we can declare a state of emergency.”
But critics say Mr. Prayuth has a built-in advantage when parliament chooses the next prime minister in May because the Senate is expected to support him overwhelmingly. Adding to those 250 votes, Mr. Prayuth needs only 126 House seats to achieve a 376 victory.
Dozens of candidates, including Mr. Thanathorn, may be disqualified this month for various reasons, making the final tallies unpredictable.
Mr. Prayuth warned of bloodshed if voters did not choose his newly created party.
“Maintaining peace and order is the most important priority for Thailand now,” he told a rally in March. “If you do not want to see turmoil in our country again, vote for [the government] party.”
Mr. Prayuth’s party scored a surprising 8.4 million votes in the election though he needs a coalition with smaller parties to stay in power.
Two main opposition parties split the anti-Prayuth vote.
The Pheu Thai party received 7.9 million voted and the Future Forward party won 6.2 million — many of them from young, first-time voters — for a total topping 14 million.
Both parties then joined a coalition with smaller anti- Prayuth parties to challenge the prime minister.
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