Capitals’ playoff scenarios with one week left in the regular season

The Washington Capitals are going back to the playoffs. It’s now just a matter of who they’ll play.

The Capitals clinched a playoff berth last Thursday when they beat the Carolina Hurricanes for the second time in three days. With three regular-season games remaining, the defending Stanley Cup champions still hold a tenuous 3-point lead in the Metropolitan Division, and no fewer than six teams are in the mix as possible first-round opponents — some more likely than others.

Here are the Metro standings entering the last week of the season:

• 1. Capitals — 102 points, 43 ROW, 79 GP
• 2. Islanders — 99 points, 42 ROW, 79 GP
• 3. Penguins — 97 points, 41 ROW, 79 GP
• 4. Blue Jackets — 94 points, 44 ROW, 79 GP
• 5. Hurricanes — 93 points, 41 ROW, 79 GP

Washington can clinch the Metro Division as soon as Monday with a win at Florida and an Islanders loss to Toronto in regulation. That would put the Capitals out of New York’s and Pittsburgh’s reach for good.

In fact, the Capitals control their destiny for the division race: All they have to do is get to 106 standings points to become mathematically untouchable. (Reaching 104 would eliminate Pittsburgh from the division champ discussion.)

But how about a much more exciting scenario? Barry Trotz and the Islanders return to the District for the 82nd and final game of the regular season on April 6. In order for that to become the single game that decides the division, the Capitals and Islanders would need to be within 2 standings points of one another after 81 games.

If the Islanders win the division, the Capitals absolutely could draw the Penguins in the first round rather than the second-round showdown we’re accustomed to.

But don’t look now — here come the Columbus Blue Jackets. Winners of five straight, the Jackets would be the No. 1 wild card in the Eastern Conference and play Washington in the first round if the season ended today, a rematch of last year’s first-round series.

These are the standings for the wild-card race in the East:

• WC1 Blue Jackets — 94 points, 44 ROW, 79 GP
• WC2 Hurricanes — 93 points, 41 ROW, 79 GP
• 3 Canadiens — 92 points, 40 ROW, 79 GP

The Philadelphia Flyers (82 points) were eliminated from the playoff race last week, so now it’s just these three vying for two playoff spots. But it’s worth noting that as of Monday morning, Pittsburgh and Toronto (each at 97 points) had not clinched so much as a playoff berth yet; either team could stall out in the last three games and fall into a wild card slot or, more embarrassingly, out of the picture altogether.

What’s ROW got to do with it? It stands for regulation and overtime wins — any time a team won without needing a shootout. ROW is the first tiebreaker the NHL uses when two or more teams finish tied in the standings. The Capitals currently have a leg up on every team except Columbus, but there’s no scenario in which they would end up tied with Columbus.

After ROW, the tiebreaker resorts to the “greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs.” If you won more than 50 percent of the standings points available in your season series with a given opponent, you’re golden.

Right now, the Capitals lead the Islanders 4 points to 2 in their season series, so if a potential standings tie is looming Saturday, Washington will be in the clear if they force overtime and secure at least one more point.

But Washington only earned 3 points in its season series with Pittsburgh, while the Penguins took six. Therefore, in the event of a tie with the Penguins — at 102 points and 43 ROW — Pittsburgh will win the tiebreaker on season series performance, and the Capitals can fall as far as the third seed in the Metro.