OPINION:
If one were to listen to the left-wing media, Republican voters might as well not even show up to the polls in November, because the “blue wave” is coming. The U.S. House of Representatives will soon be in the hands of the Democrats, and the Senate might dump the GOP as well … that is, if you believe everything that is being said on the nightly news.
Conservatives need to realize that President Trump is running against history. It is almost a given that the party holding the White House will lose seats in the midterm elections. In fact, 2002 was the only year that bucked the trend, and the country was united in its fight against Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.
The media are “all in” on the blue wave talking points. The Washington Post, CNN, ABC News and NBC News have all written about the topic, including NBC News’ headline “Voter registration data suggests Democrats’ longed-for ’blue wave’ will crash over Republicans in November.”
As NBC News points out, “In every election since 1946 when the president’s approval rating is under 50 percent at the time of a midterm, the party that controls the White House has lost an average of 37 seats in the House of Representatives.” With prognostication like that, should Republicans even bother?
In the Senate, Republicans hold a 51-49 majority. Despite the talk, we can thank Mr. Trump’s accomplishments, the Kavanaugh fallout and state demographics for helping keep the Senate in Republican hands after the November elections. In fact, there is a good chance the GOP will gain seats after the ballots are counted.
In the left-leaning Cook Political Report, nine Senate races are considered toss-ups, but that is far from reality. The states in the toss-up list are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas.
Despite liberals’ dreams of challenger Beto O’Rourke unseating Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, it’s just not going to happen. Mr. Cruz wins. In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (once behind in the polls) is now looking strong. In Nevada, Sen. Dean Heller is now leading his Democratic opponent in most polls. This one is still iffy, but definitely winnable. Finally, there’s the Arizona Senate race which will fill the open seat of the late Sen. John McCain. The Republican nominee, Martha McSally, has seen her outlook rise since the Brett Kavanaugh hearings. A recent ABC News poll has her up six points, while others are showing a very tight race. If Republicans can hold serve on these seats, it forms a very strong foundation for gains in the Republican majority.
Looking at the toss-up states currently held by Democrats, incumbent North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is toast. In Indiana, Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly has seen his lead evaporate. Fox News had Mr. Donnelly up two points at the end of September, and a recent Ipsos poll has Mr. Donnelly up three points. These are within the margin of error and show that challenger Mike Braun has a real chance. In Missouri, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill appears to be in big trouble to challenger Josh Hawley.
In Montana, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is up by around three points, but polling data are from the middle of September and do not reflect the post-Kavanaugh feelings of a state that voted for Mr. Trump over Hillary Clinton by 56 percent to 36 percent.
Republicans should be able to build on their Senate majority, but what happens to the U.S. House? Democrats need 23 seats to gain control of the House. Many pundits are focusing on the fact that there are 25 seats currently held by Republicans but whose district voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democrats believe that if they can bring a number of those districts with them, along with some other pickups, such as from the redistricting fiasco in Pennsylvania, then the majority will be theirs.
The enthusiasm expressed by voters is tracked in polls and has been consistently in favor of the Democrats for months. On Oct. 3, NPR noted that the edge had evaporated into a statistical tie. On Oct. 10, Rasmussen Reports noted that their “generic ballot” poll showed a tie between Republicans and Democrats. This tie represents only the second time the Democrats have not led in the “generic ballot” polling since May.
Democrats may be counting on Republican districts that voted for Hillary Clinton, but in doing so, they are ignoring the obvious. It is quite understandable for voters to have been leery of Mr. Trump, but now, the voters in these Republican districts can see the record. Taxes have been cut; unemployment is at a 50-year low; Regulations have been cut; Mr. Trump is appointing conservatives to the bench; the economy is booming. All any Republican candidate has to ask his or her voters is “Do you really want this to stop? Or do you want us to do even more?”
The GOP can lose around 20 seats which will continue the historic trend — not an anti-Trump mandate that the media are promoting — and still keep the House.
The “blue wave” can certainly be turned into a ripple, but it won’t happen by itself. Angry Democrats must be countered by energetic Republicans. Radical leftists must be countered by committed conservatives. In other words, Republican voters must vote.
• Bobby Eberle, a race car driver and former aerospace engineer, is the president of GOPUSA.com.
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