The number of games — not the series outcome — seems to be the only question.
As Golden State and Cleveland meet for their fourth consecutive NBA Finals, predictions of a Cavaliers’ triumph are as numerous as sunrises in the West. The Warriors got the nod from 24 of 24 ESPN experts; 15 envision a five-game series and one sees a sweep.
Analyst Jeff Van Gundy wasn’t on the list but shared his thoughts with reporters during a conference call.
“This is the biggest difference that I remember between two teams heading into the Finals in my time in the NBA,” said Van Gundy, whose association with the Association dates to 1989. “I can’t think of a bigger gap from a team perspective.”
That’s saying a lot considering the talent gulf between San Antonio and Cleveland in 2007, and the Lakers and New Jersey in 2002, the most recent Finals sweeps. Only six other NBA champions have been crowned via the broom, but Golden State seems poised to join that group.
“It will be interesting to see how competitive LeBron James can make this Finals, but any game they get in this Finals would be a huge upset to me,” Van Gundy said. Cleveland needs “to be lights-out from three-point line to have a chance to win a game.”
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The NBA’s best player is facing the NBA’s best team and it’s not a fair fight. For all of James’ supernatural, otherworldly ability to dominate as a 33-year-old in his 15th NBA season, he’ll need more help than he received in the Eastern Conference finals. The Warriors won’t be overwhelmed by the moment and discombobulated on the road like the Celtics were.
Golden State has three of the league’s best shot-makers in Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. Either of them can get hot and carry the team at a moment’s notice.
In the Warriors’ Western Conference finals Game 7 victory Monday against Houston, Durant had 21 of his game-high 34 points in the second half while Curry scored 19 of his 27 after the break. In Game 6, staving off elimination, Thompson had 21 of his game-high 35 points in the second half.
“Our talent took over,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters after winning the Western Conference finals. “It’s as simple as that.”
Houston guard Eric Gordon said Houston would’ve won if not for Chris Paul missing the last two games with a strained hamstring. Gordon might be right. Likewise, Kyrie Irving might be correct in asserting that Cleveland would’ve beat the Warriors in 2015 if not for injuries to himself and Kevin Love.
Hey, while we’re at it, maybe San Antonio would’ve knocked off the champs last year in the Western Conference finals if not for Zaza Pachulia sliding under Kawhi Leonard’s bum ankle in Game 1.
Maybe Boston would’ve ended James’ streak of NBA Finals if not the absences of Irving and Gordon Hayward.
Playing the “what if” game is a no-lose proposition that can extend to infinity. But injuries happen. Curry, Durant, Thompson and Draymond Green all missed time this season, as did key reserve Patrick McCaw. Former Finals MVP Andre Iguodola was a no-go for the last four games against Houston and was ruled out on Wednesday for Game 1.
Iguodala, who defends James as well as humanly possible, would be missed even more against Cleveland. But the Warriors have proved themselves resilient and mentally tough in the face of absences. Having four of the league’s top 20 players helps. Even though the bench is a bit suspect, the team has accepted expectations that it will win every game.
“Being hunted is different than hunting, and we’ve been in that role for a long time,” Warriors GM Bob Myers told ESPN. “I guess that’s the position you want to be in. But there’s a weight to that.”
Golden State might feel it, but it’s not visible. All we see is a juggernaut eyeing its third title in four seasons. Overconfidence will be the biggest challenge with so many people giving Cleveland no shot.
“I’m not going to say zero percent chance – they have the best player in the world,” analyst Mark Jackson said on the conference call. But “it would be a major upset if the Cleveland Cavaliers were to win the NBA championship.”
It wouldn’t be UMBC-over-Virginia big because James gives his team a puncher’s chance in any matchup.
But I don’t see Cleveland winning more than one round … if any.
That might be the only drama ahead.
• Brooklyn-born and Howard-educated, Deron Snyder writes his award-winning column for The Washington Times on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Follow him on Twitter @DeronSnyder.
• Deron Snyder can be reached at deronsnyder@gmail.com.
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