BANGKOK — It’s an anniversary that few Thais are in a mood to celebrate these days.
The military-dominated government this week marked the start of its fifth year in power, with pro-democracy activists marching in the streets, the economy on the skids, corruption a growing problem and doubts that promised elections early next year will make much of a difference — assuming they even come off.
Thai police on Tuesday blocked hundreds of activists demanding elections this year from marching to the office of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha after scuffling with demonstrators who ripped away metal barricades in front of a university.
At least five leaders of the “People Who Want Elections” protest were arrested on charges of staging an illegal political demonstration.
“We have tried everything, but in the end, we might not be able to bring change and a return to democracy,” said Rangsiman Rome, one of the detained protest leaders who reluctantly called off the march in the afternoon after hours of tense confrontation in the street.
Some had mocked Mr. Prayuth, who led the May 22, 2014, coup when he was army chief, by wearing face masks portraying him as a long-nosed Pinocchio.
They demand national elections this year, an immediate end to the junta’s control and a stop to military support of the regime.
But the blocked parade may prove an apt metaphor: Mr. Prayuth may not have been able to quiet his persistent critics or to provide a credible path back to democratic rule, but his opponents have been similarly frustrated in efforts to limit his power or undercut his base.
Government critics have grown weary of Mr. Prayuth’s routine postponement of the election date and suspect he will delay his latest promise for elections in February.
After using military trials against civilian dissidents, “attitude adjustment” re-education camps, restrictions against political meetings of more than four people and other politicized laws, the government denied abusing human rights because violators were imprisoned but not physically harmed or executed.
Several days ago, police hauled in a spike-haired, punk rock singer at a concert protesting the four-year anniversary for shouting lyrics deemed critical of the junta.
Amnesty International used the anniversary of the military takeover to step up its demands that the government junta, known formally as the National Council for Peace and Order, restore civil rights in the country.
“The sweeping and wholly unjustified restrictions on human rights put into place by the NCPO in the wake of the coup were supposed to be exceptional and temporary measures,” said Katherine Gerson, a Southeast Asia specialist for the group. “Four years on and countless abuses later, they remain firmly in place and are relentlessly deployed by authorities.”
But the authoritarian prime minister, who supporters say has given Thailand a measure of stability that a string of ineffective, corruption-plagued civilian governments failed to provide, has seen his stock rise in Washington with the election of Donald Trump, who dropped the Obama administration’s distancing from the regime and even hosted Mr. Prayuth in the Oval Office last fall.
The Trump administration has also revived the military ties between the longtime treaty allies, and the Pentagon has expanded the size and scope of military contacts over the past year amid fears that China has become an increasingly attractive security and economic alternative for Bangkok.
During Mr. Trump’s presidency, the Pentagon has also boosted weapons sales and annual military training with Thailand, including an expanded multinational Cobra Gold exercise staged here this year.
On Sunday, for the first time ever, the U.S. 7th Fleet began its Pacific Partnership training exercise in Thailand’s waters with a ceremony aboard a Military Sealift Command expeditionary fast transport ship, the USNS Brunswick.
Standing tough
But there are few signs that Mr. Prayuth’s government has mellowed or is eager to hand off power to a fully elected civilian government.
Four years after the coup, Thai courts now prosecute political opponents for sedition or other serious crimes, including politicians from the main opposition Pheu Thai (For Thais) party.
Some fear the government is organizing a legal assault to dissolve the Pheu Thai party, which headed the coalition government Mr. Prayuth ousted in 2014.
The prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was later convicted of criminal negligence for her role in what prosecutors called a corruption-riddled rice crop subsidy scheme. She fled Thailand days before receiving a five-year prison sentence, but many of her financial assets were seized.
Her authoritarian brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, shared a similar fate after he was toppled in a 2006 coup, in which Mr. Prayuth also participated.
Mr. Thaksin became an international fugitive after he was given a two-year prison sentence for corruption in a real estate deal.
The wealthy siblings remain popular among supporters, but it is unclear how much influence they will have if elections are allowed.
The government pushed through a 2017 constitutional rewrite that creates a 250-seat Senate dominated by appointed military officials and other allies to balance a popularly elected House of Representatives.
Mr. Prayuth is widely expected to try to remain prime minister as a constitutionally permitted “outsider” if elections end in a hung parliament and he can secure enough legislative support for his candidacy. Alternatively, he could be elected as a politician if he joins a party.
The blunt-talking former general, accused by the opposition of using his power and position to “suck up” support, declared last month, “I am not a vacuum cleaner. … I have not siphoned anyone.”
The 2014 coup brought peace to Bangkok, bloodied by a 2010 pro-election insurrection that left more than 90 civilians dead and followed by an anti-election insurrection that favored a military solution. But whether Mr. Prayuth has brought a lasting peace to Thailand’s sometimes chaotic landscape is an open question.
“Whether the military has actually ended this divisive activity, however, or merely paused it at gunpoint, remains to be seen,” a Bangkok Post editorial said Tuesday.
Blocked by the junta’s restrictions against speaking freely about Thailand’s politics, critics and local media have trained their fire on the government economic record, which is among the worst in Southeast Asia.
Coup supporters may be abandoning Mr. Prayuth because of economic problems among indebted middle and lower classes, which could prevent him from winning enough votes in an election, columnist Pravit Rojanaphruk wrote.
Mr. Prayuth recently visited some of Thailand’s less-developed provinces, where he is least popular.
After offering development programs and other expensive projects, critics said, Mr. Prayuth was unfairly doling out tax money and populist policies to lure voters away from his opponents.
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