OPINION:
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, had a very good year in 2017. With 25 ballistic missiles launched, to include an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the whole of the continental U.S., and a reported successful test of a hydrogen bomb, it’s obvious that Kim Jong-un was feeling good about the progress the North made with its nuclear and missile programs. No doubt this motivated Kim Jong-un to reach out to South Korea and accept an invitation to participate in the 2018 Winter Olympics.
In fact, Kim Jong-un doubled down, not only sending over 500 athletes, cheerleaders and others to participate in the Winter Olympics, but also dispatching his sister, Kim Yo-Jung, to represent North Korea at the opening ceremony. Then the surprising decision to send Gen. Kim Yong Chol, former chief of military intelligence and now vice chairman of the Central Committee, to the closing session was another calculated move on the part of a confident Kim Jong-un.
Despite expected demonstrations in the South opposing Mr. Kim’s participation, due mainly to his reported leadership role in the sinking of the Cheonan frigate in 2010 that killed 46 sailors, Kim Jong-un dispatched a loyal and trusted senior military officer known to South Korea, who previously traveled to Seoul for official discussions.
The participation of Kim Yo-jong and her meetings with South Korean President Moon Jae-in resulted in the invitation of President Moon to visit Pyongyang for a summit with Kim Jong-un, at a date convenient with Mr. Moon. Reportedly, Mr. Moon made it clear that his attendance at such a summit would dictate that in addition to inter-Korean humanitarian issues, the issue of denuclearization be discussed and, ideally, North Korea would also be willing to meet with the U.S. for bilateral talks.
It appears that this request most likely resulted in the decision to send Kim Yong Chol to the Olympics for the closing ceremony, during which he could inform Mr. Moon that North Korea was now prepared to meet with the U.S.
These overtures from Kim Jong-un were motivated by a number of factors: The intensified sanctions that were biting; the enhanced joint military exercises that were intimidating; the progress the North made with its nuclear and missile programs and thus the view that they could meet more as equals; and the realization that Mr. Moon and his administration wanted a negotiated settlement of issues with North Korea.
North Korea is now prepared for unconditional talks with the U.S. They know that any talks with the U.S. would be contingent on the North halting its missile launches and nuclear tests. The North may be willing to do this. North Korea will not, however, commit to the dismantlement of its nuclear program. Having spent years and precious resources to acquire nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems, Kim Jong-un is not prepared to give up capabilities that his father and grandfather pursued for decades. So, then what’s the value of having even exploratory talks with North Korea if denuclearization is off the table?
The key is ensuring that denuclearization is not off the table. Complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is an issue the U.S., and others must pursue. Currently, North Korea may believe that a halt to its nuclear program will be an acceptable comprise; that a cap on the number of nuclear weapons eventually will be acceptable. That would be a catastrophic mistake.
North Korea with even a few nuclear weapons will encourage other countries in the region to seek their own nuclear weapons capabilities, regardless of U.S. extended nuclear deterrence commitments. Moreover, the possibility that North Korea would sell a nuclear weapon or fissile material to a rogue state or non-state actor, for financial gain, is also a reality. North Korea’s nuclear assistance to Syria with the construction of a nuclear reactor in Al Kibar, destroyed by Israel in 2007, is a recent example, as is current U.N. reports that North Korea assisted Syria with its chemical weapons program.
Sitting down with North Korea for unconditional talks seems prudent at this time, assuming the North halts all nuclear tests and missile launches. North Korea in these talks will seek the cessation of joint military exercises and relief with sanctions. These are all negotiable if North Korea is prepared to discuss the dismantlement of its nuclear program in a verifiable manner.
Indeed, Kim Jong-un’s father, Kim Jong-il, in 2005 committed North Korea to the dismantlement of its nuclear programs, in return for security assurances and the eventual normalization of relations with the U.S. Although we’re dealing with a new leader and a North Korea with nuclear weapons, we should pursue this goal, confident that defusing the current impasse could lead to a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. But this will take considerable time, patience and perseverance.
• Joseph R. DeTrani was the former Special Envoy for negotiations with North Korea. The views are the author’s and not any government agency or department.
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