Jennifer Wexton leads Rep. Barbara Comstock: Poll

Democratic State Sen. Jennifer Wexton holds a 10-point lead over GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in the closely watched House race in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.

Ms. Wexton led Ms. Comstock by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent, among all “potential” voters, or voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

Ms. Wexton also led by 9 and 11 points, respectively, when the survey used a historical midterm turnout model and one with a turnout “surge” in areas where President Trump is unpopular.

“This part of the commonwealth was a critical factor in the blue wave that elected Democrats in last year’s election for governor and state legislature. Not much has changed in the political environment since then, with Pres. Trump creating a significant drag for Comstock,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Fifty-three percent of voters said they disapprove of the job Mr. Trump is doing, compared to 42 percent who said they approve. Nearly half — 47 percent — said they strongly disapprove, compared to 24 percent who said they strongly approve.

Seven in 10 voters who oppose Mr. Trump’s actions also said it’s very important for them to cast a vote in the House race to show their feelings about the president, compared to 58 percent of those who said they support the president.

Forty-six percent of voters did say Ms. Comstock has generally done a good job serving the needs of constituents in the district, compared to 30 percent who said she’s done a bad job.

Ms. Wexton defeated five Democratic challengers earlier this month to win the party’s nomination in the race.

Ms. Comstock, first elected in 2014, turned aside a primary challenger of her own on June 12th. She won re-election in 2016 by about 6 points in a district Hillary Clinton carried over Mr. Trump by about 10 points.

The survey of 400 voters in the district was conducted June 21-24. The head-to-head matchup question has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.9 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 7.5 percentage points for the likely voter models.