OPINION:
After a year, conservatives should now have few doubts about President Trump. They should have even fewer that they will have a better viable alternative in 2020. If so, Mr. Trump will have gone a long way toward re-election still three years away.
When Donald Trump began his presidential quest in June 2015, conservatives were rightly suspicious. At the very least, he was Johnny-come-lately to a movement that jealously guards its pedigree. His late arrival was only the beginning for most conservatives.
On issues, Mr. Trump’s past policy positions were at best a hodgepodge often contradicting conservative dogma. Politically, he was no less varied, having moved around America’s electoral universe. Personally, his flamboyant style was conservatism’s antithesis. His personal life was even more so.
Combining politics, policy, personality, and personal, Mr. Trump was the most unlikely conservative candidate in a crowded 17-candidate field. Spanning the Republican spectrum, Mr. Trump stretched it even further. For many conservatives, he stretched it to breaking, and for that reason they broke with Mr. Trump.
Perhaps with conservative caution flags whipping, it is surprising he was won 81 percent of 2016’s conservative voters. Yet Mr. Trump did not simply fail to win 19 percent of conservatives. So doubtful of him, 16 percent voted for Hillary Clinton.
In office a year, much should have changed in conservatives’ appraisal of Mr. Trump. Conservative cynicism over Mr. Trump saying one thing, but doing another, should be largely gone. When Mr. Trump is faulted on policy, it is largely for having done precisely what he said he would do.
Regardless of what conservatives expected before, he has delivered — notably a conservative Supreme Court and conservative cornerstone of enacting the largest tax reform in decades. More generally, he reduced government — literally and figuratively, through reduced regulations.
Conservatives can say with certainty: What Mr. Trump has done, Hillary Clinton, or other Democrats would not — such as signing tax reform centered on a large tax cut. Further, if honest with themselves, conservatives must admit that of the 2016 Republicans, Mr. Trump has done at least as well as any would have on their issues — and better than many establishment Republicans.
With even greater certainty, conservatives can also trust that, based on 2017, Mr. Trump will do better than any 2020 Democrat will do for them. If that sounds hardly a comparison, remember 16 percent of conservatives thought Hillary Clinton would do better.
Democrats’ last presidential contest was a battle waged left of center. No support existed elsewhere and there is little reason to believe 2020 will see the fight move to the center. So Democrats’ next nominee could be more to the left than Mrs. Clinton was, and almost assuredly more so than Mr. Trump will be.
The importance of conservatives’ appraisal of Mr. Trump is this: 2020 could well hinge on it. If Mr. Trump has convinced them after just a year, he has taken a major step to re-election. Conservatives comprised 35 percent of 2016 presidential voters. If Mr. Trump can convert the 16 percent who voted for Mrs. Clinton, that translates roughly into 5.6 percent of the electorate.
Such addition to Mr. Trump’s 2016 46.1 percent of the popular vote, would have put him at 51.7 percent overall — higher than Mr. Obama’s 2012 percentage (51.1 percent). What’s more, such addition would have been an equal subtraction from Mrs. Clinton’s 48.2 percent — dropping her to just 42.6 percent. That 9.1 percent gap would have been the biggest since Ronald Reagan destroyed Walter Mondale in 1984.
Of course, Mr. Trump will also likely lose some 2016 support. Notably, Mr. Trump won 10 percent of liberals in 2016. If conservatives should be convinced of Mr. Trump’s bona fides, liberals should feel the opposite. However, a trade of conservatives for liberals enormously benefits Mr. Trump: He lost far more conservatives than he gained liberals.
Additionally, Mr. Trump has another group with which to replace lost liberals: Moderates. At 39 percent, moderates were 2016’s largest ideological bloc, and Mr. Trump won only 40 percent (Mrs. Clinton won 52 percent). Here, the economy could be Mr. Trump’s trump card. With real GDP having averaged just 1.5 percent annually from 2009-2016, and just 1.8 percent from 2001-2016, Mr. Trump does not need the economy to run red-hot to convince many in the center to give him another shot.
Conservative icon William F. Buckley had a rule: Support the most viable conservative candidate. Winning nomination and then election, Mr. Trump should have resolved viability. Granted three years remain, but with one year done, Mr. Trump should have gone a long way to proving his “conservability.” If so, and the economy serves as an in-road to moderates, Mr. Trump will have gone from viable to re-electable in amazingly short order.
• J.T. Young served under President George W. Bush as the director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary in legislative affairs for tax and budget at the Treasury Department.
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